Tag Archives: republicans

Judge Posner Embraces Keynes

Judge Richard Posner, at the University of Chicago, is a big wheel intellectual who virtually invented the economics and law analysis that currently dominates US jurisprudence, and who is as responsible as anyone outside of Milton Friedman for the Chicago School of economics and its embrace of free markets. So when Judge Posner announces that the Chicago School is wrong, that unfettered free markets don’t work, and that Keynes was right all along, that is a big freaking deal. Well here is an article by Judge Posner titled How I Became A Keynesian. Here is a link to a new book by Judge Posner about how free-market capitalism failed. Here are a bunch of interviews with Chicago economists who are all defensive about how their theories failed. It’s not that Judge Posner is the final arbiter of anything (in fact, my prior post on him was a strong disagreement with something he said), but when a main force behind a movement leaves that movement behind, we should at least pay attention.

Politicians Should Start Their Careers Outside Politics

I was reading recently about Senator Byron Dorgan’s retirement, and the article claimed that he had been in politics for 40 years. I looked up his biography on his official site and on Wikipedia, and both confirmed the 40 year figure. Dorgan worked in business for 2-3 years, and then became State Tax Commissioner at age 26, and has been an elected official ever since.

Then this weekend’s NY Times magazine had a long piece on the GOP’s moderate vs. Tea Party battle, as personified by the race in Florida between Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio. It turns out that Rubio has never done anything but hold elective office, serving as a West Miami city commissioner right out of law school.

Dorgan and Rubio might be great legislators — I don’t know enough about either of them to judge — but doesn’t it seem like we should want our politicians to have lived in the real world? Think of all the things we regular folks have to do: hunt for jobs, worry about insurance, cooperate with coworkers we hate, shop for cars, get things done at work, etc. Career politicians don’t have to do any of that stuff. They never need to execute and accomplish, and they get rewarded for being obstinate. They stop worrying about money, since they get to pay their family as “consultants” out of campaign funds. And they have staff to take care of life’s little details.

I’m not expecting our politicians to follow the lead of Cincinnatus, who left his farm to run Rome, and then returned to his farm. But maybe some experience in the real world, not the political world, would get our legislators to work — WORK — on policy, instead of spending all their time posturing and campaigning.

Lack of Insurance Causes 45,000 Annual US Deaths

Here is a link to a new study which estimates that 44,789 Americans die each year because they lack health insurance. This is the study that Rep. Alan Grayson referenced when he faux-apologized for mocking the Republicans’ lack of a health plan.

This is a purely statistical study, and I am totally unqualified to assess its methodology. However, it is being published in a peer-reviewed academic journal, and was written by fancy-pants researchers at Harvard Medical School, so it’s probably a pretty decent piece of work.

The Benefits of Financial Regulation

Harvard Magazine recently published an article regarding bank regulation. Like many articles (in fact, like the vast majority of articles I’ve seen), it makes the case that the current situation virtually guarantees another financial meltdown, since all major financial institutions now have implicit government backing, under the “too big to fail (TBTF)” doctrine. However, this article is a little different than many because it’s written not by a journalist, but by David Moss, a professor at Harvard Business School, which is, of course, the main source of the overconfident financiers who created the recent meltdown.

Professor Moss suggests a number of solutions to the TBTF problem and the moral hazard it creates. Most of these suggestions revolve around making the implicit guarantee an explicit one, with transparent limits and with the government charging for the guarantee. He would also add a tight regulatory regime.

The most interesting thing about Moss’ article was the graph I’ve inserted below. This graph has the date on the X axis, from 1864 to 2000. The Y axis shows the number of bank failures during each year. As you can see, bank failures were a regular occurrence in the American economy until 1932, when in the wake of the Great Depression a whole series of regulations were implemented, including Glass-Steagall. Then there is a long, calm period with very few bank failures, running up to the early 1980’s, when bank deregulation began under the Reagan administration. This graph speaks volumes.

Bank Failures Over Time

Bank Failures Over Time

Bank CEOs and Republicans are arguing strenuously against new bank regulations. CEOs have a good reason: they want to make as much money as possible. But Republicans are fighting regulation simply because they have an ideology that regulation is inherently bad. I think the last two years have proven this ideology wrong, but even if you don’t buy that, it’s hard to argue with the chart. So the question for Republicans is whether they are going to look at 136 years of data, or listen to the anti-government ramblings of people like former exterminator and creepy dancer Tom Delay, or fact-hindered quasi-philosopher Ayn Rand?

“Death Panels” Are Another GOP Lie

Check out this NY Times article which shows in detail how the ridiculous rumor about “death panels” in the current health care reform effort came from the same sources whose lies helped kill Clinton’s health care reform. Why do Republicans so hate health care reform? Do they really think it’s OK for poor people to get worse health care than wealthy ones?

Don’t Screw Up Healthcare to Make Political Points

The health care reform effort in Congress is hitting some snags, and reports are discussing how the republicans see this as a make or break moment for the Obama administration. The republicans want to stop reform to make Obama look bad and weaken his chances to implement other parts of his agenda. Jim DeMint (R-SC) called it a “Waterloo moment” for the president.

This is why people hate politicians. Because instead of focusing on policy and helping their country and their constituents, they play douche bag political games like this is some sort of high school mock senate instead of the real thing.

If politicians don’t like the health care reform bills being presented, that’s fine. They are challenging bills, and concerns about their cost or about growing government bureaucracy or any number of other issues are legitimate. Hell, if you think that the free market should rule and people should be on their own for health care, that’s a legitimate, although heartless, view.

Virtually everyone – including republicans – agrees that health care reform is needed. The disastrous state of the American health care system is well known. So to fight health care reform bill – not fight to improve it, but fight against it passing at all – just to score political points, well that sucks. As happens so often here at Thoughtbasket, I must ask our representatives to stop dicking around and do the right thing.

Please Focus on Policy, Not on Fear

Opponents of President Obama’s plan to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay have recently seized on the tactic of asking “do you want these terrorists in your neighborhood?” and thus playing on people’s fears. This is purely a rhetorical feint, and it’s offensive. The president isn’t planning on installing the Gitmo inmates in your local condo complex, and his opponents know that. The inmates will go into military brigs or maximum security prisons: the same places that currently house murderers, rapists and drug dealers. Are Obama’s opponents saying that these prisons aren’t secure? If so, shouldn’t they focus on fixing the prisons, so that rapists aren’t wandering your neighborhoods?

The fact is that the opponents of closing Gitmo know perfectly well that moving the inmates to a US supermax facility is perfectly safe. They just disagree with closing the island prison on policy grounds. And that’s fine. There are reasons – cost, isolation from US courts, desire to maintain military control – for wanting to keep Gitmo open. But let’s discuss those actual reasons, instead of using fear mongering and mistruths to get people scared and worked up.

Speaking of mistruths, on the same day that Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said that he has long wanted to close Gitmo because it “has been a recruiting symbol for those extremists and jihadists who would fight us,” Republican Senator John Kyl, who is a major league douchebag, claimed that “it’s palpably false to suggest that the existence of Gitmo created terrorists.” Who is a more reputable source – the career soldier or the sleazy politician?

Glenn Greenwald has an excellent piece in Salon describing how this is an ongoing pattern: Republicans use specious arguments to make voters afraid, and Democrats feel a need to act tough instead of pointing out the ridiculousness of the Republican arguments. The NY Times recently ran a piece showing how the Republicans were planning even before Obama’s inauguration to use this strategy. To me, this demonstrates that the strategy is purely political, with no basis in fact or policy.

Auto Industry Bailout Follow Up

The NY Times is reporting that one of the things that kept the Republicans in the Senate from supporting the bailout was the UAW’s refusal to take any pay cuts until 2011. From the article, it sounds like Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) and UAW President Ron Gettelfinger are both lying, but regardless, if the UAW isn’t willing to make concessions right now, whether pay cuts or benefit cuts or work rule changes, then let the car companies go under and the UAW members find other jobs.

More on the Laffer Curve

I recently discovered another tidbit that points out the lunacy of the Laffer Curve. Harvard economist Greg Mankiw – former Chairman of George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisorsquotes David Stockman, who was telling a story about Ronald Reagan:

[Reagan] had once been on the Laffer curve himself. “I came into the Big Money making pictures during World War II,” he would always say. At that time the wartime income surtax hit 90 percent. “You could only make four pictures and then you were in the top bracket,” he would continue. “So we all quit working after four pictures and went off to the country.” High tax rates caused less work. Low tax rates caused more. His experience proved it.

But that example is irrelevant to the actual economy. Movie actors can stop making movies when they feel like it. But people with real jobs, even big shots on Wall Street or in venture capital, or entrepreneurs, like John McCain’s “Joe the plumber” from last night’s debate, can’t just stop working in the fall when they’ve earned enough money. In the real world, you keep working all year, even if you don’t need the money you’ll make in those last two months, because you’ll lose your job if you stop working, or because your employees need the money even if you don’t. The fact that the Reagan economic plan, and thus Republican orthodoxy, was built on the unusual case of movie star economics is profoundly disturbing.

Republican Tax Policy

Republican tax policy is so big a target it’s almost hard to know where to begin. But I’ll start with the most basic fact: Republic policy is to cut taxes. In general, Republicans will always push for lower taxes. Income taxes? Lower. Capital gains? Lower. Corporate taxes? Lower. Got yourself a financial crisis? Lower taxes will solve your problem!

The Republican quest for lower taxes is driven by three major impulses, one philosophical, one economic, and one greedy. I’ll discuss each impulse in turn.

The philosophical impulse is, broadly speaking, that the government shouldn’t take what you earn. As the current GOP platform puts it, not only should you “keep more of what you earn,” but “government should tax only to raise money for its essential functions.” But this too has multiple components. Saying “essential functions” relates to the Republican emphasis on small government. I already dealt with that ridiculous canard here, so I shall discuss it no further.

But keeping more of what you earn, to Republicans that’s just part of liberty and freedom, Mom and apple pie. As the Club for Growth puts it, they believe that “opportunity come(s) through economic freedom.” I get that; part of the American foundational myth is freedom from the heavy hand of government – no taxation without representation and all that. But notice that the famous phrase does NOT say “no taxation,” it just demands fair representation. In fact, Section 2 of the Constitution, the fifth paragraph in the entire document, condones taxation. The Founders didn’t equate freedom with reduced taxation.

The pairing of freedom and low taxes is merely a Republican shibboleth, one that we are all supposed to believe because they have repeated it so often. Yet why must society accept their definition of freedom? After all, cannot freedom also mean living in a safe, just and ordered society? That society requires government, and government requires taxes. Or, as Oliver Wendell Holmes said, “taxes are the price of civilization.”

The second Republican impulse to lower taxes is economic. The theory is that lowering taxes stimulates growth.  Again, from the GOP platform: “Republicans lowered taxes in 2001 and 2003 in order to encourage economic growth.” Yes, under standard Keynesian economics, a tax cut will put more money into the economy and thereby stimulate consumption. But the Republican view is based more on the theory that tax cuts fuel productive investment. That theory is based primarily on the Laffer Curve. Dr. Laffer himself: “The higher tax rates are, the greater will be the economic (supply-side) impact of a given percentage reduction in tax rates.”

Famous for being sketched on a cocktail napkin in a Washington DC restaurant, the Laffer Curve states that at 100% taxation the government will make no money, since all activity will cease. Sure, and when the sun explodes, all activity will also cease. Duh. But that doesn’t mean that lowering taxes inevitably leads to more activity, which is how Republican supply-siders generally interpret Laffer. Simple common sense rejects that implication of Laffer; does anyone really believe that investor X or entrepreneur Y will refuse to build a company because their gains will be taxed at 60% instead of 30%? That’s ridiculous. And all empirical studies agree. No study supports Laffer effects at any tax rate below 90%.

Here are just a few links to various studies and summaries:

But Harvard economist Jeff Frankel put it best: “The Laffer Proposition, while theoretically possible under certain conditions, does not apply to US income tax rates:  a cut in those rates reduces revenue, precisely as common sense would indicate.”

Bottom line: this Republican concept that lowering tax rates will unleash torrents of investment and innovation is rubbish. It defies common sense, and every academic study proves it to be wrong.

The third and last Republican impulse driving taxes lower is pure greed. Quite simply, they want to keep more of the money they make. And again, I understand that; nobody really likes giving money away, especially to a government that may spend your money on things you don’t support.  But the Republicans driving this policy aren’t exactly Joe Sixpack, working class stiffs hoping to keep more of their hourly wages. Instead, they are folks like Stephen Moore and Grover Norquist, white middle-class intellectuals who have never had to worry about money or needed the support that tax dollars provide to the less fortunate. Or, even more pointedly, they are Wall Street titans like Henry Kravis and Steve Schwarzman, of KKR and Blackstone Group, who are worth billions and really don’t need the extra money. An article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal noted that these and other Wall Street bigwigs were finally supporting McCain because “ ‘Reality set in,’ one fund-raiser said. ‘Donors realized they could face an Obama administration next month.’ They are petrified they will face steep increases in personal and corporate tax rates, this person said.” Schwarzman took home over $700 million when Blackstone went public. Does he really need a lower tax rate on his future income?