Category Archives: Trends

Politics and Culture, Part 1

Cultural critic Lee Siegel wrote a great article in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal describing how Republicans created the culture wars and continue to win them because Democrats don’t even understand the game they are playing. I’ll quickly summarize his argument, but strongly encourage you to read the article.

Siegel claims that Republicans view culture as something lived: your religion, your family or your sexual preferences. Liberals look at culture as something separate from daily life, something to be dipped into (e.g. opera), which means that they discuss policies as something distinct from culture. Republicans don’t even need to discuss policies…they just discuss culture, which, because it is personal and emotional, captures people’s hearts in a way that policy cannot. Culture trumps policy. As long as Democrats are talking about economic policies while Republicans are talking about a lived culture, Siegel states, Democrats will lose.

In general, I find Siegel’s argument fairly compelling. It explains why hugely qualified Democrats (Al Gore) lose to clearly unqualified Republicans (George W. Bush).  It helps explain how Bill Clinton (an exceptional Democrat in that he came across as cultural more than policy-driven) beat George H.W. Bush (who was more wonk than culture warrior). It explains the dynamic that Thomas Frank described in What’s the Matter with Kansas. And as a committed liberal, I find Siegel’s piece profoundly disturbing, because the process he describes seems to be getting more and more severe.

However, I am hoping that by unpacking some of Spiegel’s ideas, we might be able to find some ways that Democrats can integrate policy with culture and turn this dynamic to our advantage.

In the article Siegel discusses “contemporary democracy’s leveling maw.” This leveling is a key piece that Siegel touches on repeatedly but rarely addresses explicitly. He talks about how McCain “is not above us,” contrasting that with the three elite intellectuals (Gore, Kerry and Obama) the Democrats have nominated in the last three elections.

He touches on this again by discussing the growth in “vicariousness….We love people who make it possible for us to imagine inhabiting their lives.” He ties this to the growth in memoirs of regular people (e.g. James Frey); we want our lives glamorized just as the authors’ are.

Siegel combines the leveling and the vicariousness to explain Sarah Palin’s appeal. “Gov. Palin’s blatant struggles with inadequacy serve as proof of her potential to lead. She wins the vicariousness sweepstakes hands down.” But is this really where we want America to head? Where a person’s inadequate resume and messy personal life are actually their selling points? This is a problem. I don’t think society wants a race to the bottom, or even the middle, in its leaders. The person running the country should excel, rather than be average.

Finally, Siegel notes that “heartland conservatism” has a trope of “ordeal and humiliation,” in which an authority figure must be humbled before he can lead again. McCain’s torture in a POW camp leaves him pre-humiliated and thus perfectly positioned. This trope fits the classic hero pattern of descent and rebirth, which, as James Frazer and Carl Jung pointed out, is among the most common in human society. Republicans are thus able to take advantage of a very powerful mythology.

Tomorrow: what Democrats can do

Republicans Who Address Income Inequality

It deserves notice that there are a few Republicans who are taking income inequality seriously and see it as something which needs to be addressed.

David Frum wrote an article in Sunday’s NY Times about how regions with high income inequality tend to vote democratic. He pointed out that if Republicans don’t address growing inequality, they will keep losing districts. Politically expedient, yes, but Frum has written an entire book on the need for a more compassionate conservatism.

Atlantic editors Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam also have a book out: Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream. And Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who was reputedly on the shortest of short lists to be McCain’s VP, is credited with coining the term “Sam’s Club Republicans.”

Are these guys purely recognizing that working class whites are a bulwark of the Republican base, and therefore must be helped? Or do they actually recognize a moral or fairness problem with growing income inequality? I don’t know, and I haven’t read their books yet to find out. But either way, they are rare, and should be saluted at the very least for thinking differently.

Plus, I am about to start a series of posts that will attack Republican thinking and policies, so I feel like I should say something positive first.

More On Income Inequality

Princeton economist Alan Blinder wrote an op-ed in the NY Times recently describing a new study that showed income inquality increasing during Republican administrations and decreasing during Democratic adminstrations. This pattern goes back for the last 60 years. The study also notes that the economy has grown faster under Democrats during the same 60 year period.

Although Blinder has worked in Democratic administrations, he is a big deal economist. His textbook Economics: Principles and Policy, written with William Baumol, is a classic, which I used as an economics major in college.

Income Inequality

It isn’t often that I read two articles about income inquality in one day, let alone in publications as disparate as the Wall Street Journal and Harvard Magazine. But yesterday was just such a day, and it inspired me to write about these two articles.

First, the WSJ reported on some new IRS data . According to this data, the number of people with a net worth of $20 million or more was 47,000 in 2004, the most recent year for which data was available. This figure is up 62% from 1998. Other data showed that to be one of the country’s top 400 earners in 2005 you needed to earn at least $100.3 million, up from $74.5 million just a year earlier.

Then Harvard Magazine did a long survey of research by various Harvard professors on income equality and its impact on people and society. There was so much in this article that I don’t even need to comment. I am merely going to summarize some key findings and encourage you to read the entire article, which is available free online.

A) The share of total national income earned by the top 1 percent hit an all time high of 21.1 percent in 1928 — the heart of the Gilded Age. It dropped steadily to 10 percent in the 1960’s and 1970’s. In 2006 it reached 20.3 percent.

B) Americans at the 95th percentile of income or higher can expect to live nine more years than Americans at the 10th percentile or below.

C) On the Gini scale of inequality, which runs from 0 (totally equal) to 1 (Bill Gates owns it all), the US rating rose from .35 in 1965 to .44 today. Other countries around .4 include Russia and Mali.

D) The average CEO made 25 times what the average worker made in 1965. Today it’s 250 times.

E) States with the largest black populations have the least generous welfare systems.

F) In 1950 average public college tuition was 4 percent of median family income. In 2005 it was 11 percent.

There is both additional data and analysis in the full article. The article does not, however, show the methodology behind any of these studies. But I will note that all the studies were done by Harvard professors, who are generally pretty good at this stuff.

Presidential Campaign or 3rd Grade?

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal had an article about the Republican war room set up during the Democratic convention. This war room was meant to spin the Democratic speeches, massage the news cycle, publicize Democratic mistakes, all that process stuff that consultants love to do.

This article describes the reaction in the war room when Barack Obama says on his video feed that he is in a living room in St. Louis when in fact he was in Kansas City:

…the Republican operatives who had been tasked with undercutting the Democratic message here in Denver were electrified. “Woo-hoo!” one shouted, pumping his fist in the air. “Boo-yah!” another yelled.

Within minutes, an email went out to more than 600 reporters with the title: “Obama Gaffe Machine Rolls into DNCC.”

Really? You are running for President of the United States, the most powerful job in the world, and that is how you operate? You jump on a slip of the tongue and then taunt the other guy? I’m not just calling out the Republicans here….the Dems will do the exact same thing during the GOP convention. But we have two substantive candidates running at a tremendously important time. Our country is at war and our economy is going down the toilet. Don’t you think the campaigns could stop acting like third graders on the schoolyard?

What Do Clinton Supporters Want?

A new poll is out that shows McCain in a dead heat with Obama, closing the several point lead that Obama had been holding. The same poll shows that fully half of those who voted for Hillary Clinton are not supporting Obama. And I am wondering why. It seems to me that if you support Clinton’s policies, there is no way that you can vote for McCain; he is fiscally and socially conservative and staunchly against reproductive rights. So why are so many Clinton voters against Obama? Here are some possibilities:

  • They believe that experience really is paramount, and that Clinton had it while Obama doesn’t
  • They are more conservative than their support of Clinton would indicate
  • They think Obama is arrogant and elitist
  • They won’t vote for a black
  • They are still angry about perceived sexism in the primary and are taking their anger out on Obama (by the way, I still haven’t seen a concrete example of this sexism)
  • They are still angry that Clinton lost and are taking their anger out on Obama

I’m sure that there are other reasons too. And while I could deconstruct all of the above rationales, right now I am curious which ones are driving the Clinton supporters. So if you have any ideas, or if you are a Clinton supporter, please comment and let me know. Because I am genuinely curious.

A New American Sense of Responsibility?

Over the past few months I have seen more and more data indicating that Americans are cutting back their consumption in the face of the deteriorating economic situation. Retailers, restaurants, car companies, airlines – it seems as if everybody is feeling the pain. Just last week the Wall Street Journal called the trend “U.S. Retools Economy, Curbing Its Thirst for Oil.”

I am wondering if maybe this trend will last beyond the current economy and represent a new, or renewed, sense of responsibility in America. The past few decades have been an orgy of consumerism in America (and much of the developed world, but I’ll focus on America simply because I know it best), as people lived beyond their means, purchasing things they didn’t need and couldn’t afford. Possibly the best quote I have heard on this trend came from Art Wong, a worker at the port of Long Beach, who was on NPR’s Marketplace:

You know, we’re being stretched, and I turn to my kids every so often and I ask them, how many more pairs of jeans do they need? How many more handbags can they buy? And how much room do they have in their closets? And they keep going, and they keep buying, and the port keeps seeing more and more cargo coming through here.

This consumption frenzy brought with it a number of problems. There were environmental considerations, both from the production of consumer goods and from the gasoline sucked down by the SUVs that were a major outlet of purchasemania. There were price dislocations from people purchasing items (homes, Tiffany bracelets, fancy meals) that they couldn’t afford. There were macroeconomic impacts as we financed our purchases with overseas capital. Finally, I think there were moral and psychological consequences (not surprising to regular readers of this blog) from an entire population giving up on any sort of self-restraint or thought for the future.

With gas prices above $4 per gallon and economic growth stagnating, our reduced consumption is not surprising. But maybe, just maybe, this decline in purchasing represents a broader change, a sense that untrammeled consumerism is simply unsustainable. Perhaps people were jolted awake by the impact on the environment, or the national security ramifications of our addiction to oil, or the deflation of the housing bubble. Are Americans now looking beyond their own material wants?

Maybe, and maybe not. Perhaps there is no broader sense of responsibility, but rather the inexorable force of economics. Maybe people still don’t care about the environment or national security, and all they really want is a bigger Jet Ski, but they simply no longer have the money to satisfy their wants. That is certainly what the economists think. “We’re going back to the good old days of living within our means,” said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch. Adds another:

We’re seeing the birth pangs of a new economic structure,” said Neal Soss, chief economist for Credit Suisse First Boston. “The next year or two or three will be about the transition to a new equilibrium. Consumption by households will grow more slowly than their incomes, which is the exact opposite of the last 25 years when consumption grew faster than incomes.”

Although I would prefer to think that we are getting more responsible, and that issues larger than our checkbook are driving these new spending patterns, I suspect that A) the economists are right; and B) it may not really matter. Even if economics are behind the change, those economic conditions show no signs of changing in the near future, or possibly the medium future. There is even a theory that this shift is permanent, and that America’s days of being an economic powerhouse are over. “The world has become multipolar,” according to UC Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen. “Our dominance will decline.” Jared Diamond, of Guns, Germs & Steel fame, even says that the developed world only has 30-50 years of first world living before we outstrip our own resources.

Either way, this change in spending, this “retooling of the economy,” looks like it will be with us for a while. This has tremendous implications for companies that sell to consumers. Think about:

  • Utilities dealing with decreased demand for energy
  • Car companies finally forced to produce smaller cars
  • Construction with a focus on energy efficiency and green materials
  • Appliances that are cheaper, smaller and use fewer resources
  • Consumers actually turning down credit card offers because they aren’t buying things
  • Retailers changing their product assortment
  • Discounters (Wal-Mart) gaining market share at the expense of stores that catered to the overreachers (Neiman-Marcus)

Convenience Consumption, Part 2

Just a few days after finishing my entry on convenience consumption I read in The Atlantic a great article by Virginia Postrel on what she termed “inconspicuous consumption.” She explores the works of several economists who show that spending on visible consumption goes up as neighborhood income goes down. In other words, people in poor neighborhoods are more likely to buy flashy cars and watches than people in wealthy neighborhoods.

Postrel notes that when Veblen was writing in 1899, America was a much poorer country than it is now, so the wealthy wanted to show off. But now, the wealthy have already established themselves, so it’s the better off among the poor who engage in the most conspicuous consumption. She quotes Euromonitor:

“Bling rules in emerging economies still eager to travel the status-through-product consumption road….[but] bling isn’t enough for growing numbers of consumers in developed economies.”

This plays right into my thesis of convenience consumption. The upper class no longer needs to display its wealth, so it displays its importance, as measured by convenience. Gaudy bling has been left to the hoi polloi while the upper class focuses on Fiji water and packaged meals from Whole Foods.

Modern Corruption: Deny Until the Cell Door Closes

Kwame Kilpatrick, the mayor of Detroit, is caught up in a maelstrom of legal troubles. Accused of firing several police officers because they wouldn’t help cover up his affair with a one of his employees, he denied the affair until text messages revealed his deceit. He has been charged by the Wayne County prosecutor with several felonies, but he refuses to step down. He was just jailed for violating the terms of his bond, and today is being charged with two felony counts of assaulting a police officer. Still he denies all wrongdoing and refuses to resign. It’s hard to imagine that the city is being well run while its mayor is in and out of jail, but Kilpatrick is clearly more interested in his name than in the city he was elected to lead. Does Mayor Kilpatrick have no sense of decency?

But really, Kilpatrick is just an example of a growing trend among corrupt politicians: pretend it isn’t happening, totally reject all claims, and continue your denials until the day you’re in prison.

Senator Larry Craig, so amusingly charged with soliciting gay sex in an airport bathroom, has categorically denied that was his intent, and his famous “wide stance” excuse became the butt (I couldn’t resist) of much humor on the late night shows.

The FBI found $90,000 in marked bills in the refrigerator of Congressman William Jefferson, but he denies all wrongdoing and refuses to resign. Senator Ted Stevens was just indicted for failing to disclose oil company gifts. He claims complete innocence and is planning his reelection campaign. Congressman John Doolittle (what a great name for a modern congressman) was implicated in the Jack Abramoff scandal and admits paying his wife a 15% commission on all campaign contributions, but he denies any mendacity and refused to resign, choosing instead to retire at the end of his term.

Gavin Newsom, the mayor here in San Francisco, had an affair with his best friend’s wife, at a time when both the friend and the wife were on Gavin’s payroll. Mayor Newsom at least admitted the affair, but did so using the popular new excuse of addiction, and immediately went into treatment. There was no talk of him resigning, and in fact Mayor Newsom is gearing up a run for Governor.

The common theme in all these examples is the refusal to resign for the good of the office and its constituency. These politicians declined to admit or take responsibility for their actions and the impact those actions could have. They were all elected to serve, but ultimately they put their own need (to claim innocence) above the need (for effective representation) of the people who elected them. Whatever happened to admitting wrongdoing? It’s not like these guys are going to get away with it; if the accusations are true, they will be convicted and go to jail. But honestly, I don’t care if they keep denying – just get out of office so that somebody effective can come in and serve the public.

Implications? These politicians are really part of a broader evasion of responsibility, which I will have to write about later. But for now, the main beneficiaries of this trend are media companies. If Mayor Kilpatrick and Senator Craig would do the right thing and resign, then media companies (and blogs!) wouldn’t be able to milk the stories for weeks on end.

Convenience Consumption

Many people are familiar with conspicuous consumption, Thorstein Veblen’s brilliant term from Theory of the Leisure Class for describing how upper classes consume as a way of displaying wealth.

But it seems like now we are seeing a new form of consumption where people are consuming for convenience instead of conspicuousness. Of course, people have always paid for convenience – that’s why last minute plane flights are so much more expensive than advance fares – but the convenience consumption I’m seeing has certain differentiators:

  • there is a cost to society
  • the gain in convenience is marginal
  • the consuming seems driven by appearances as much as convenience.

Bottled water started me on the path to this theory, like a spring feeding a Fiji bottling plant. The growth in bottled water consumption in the U.S. has been dramatic, growing to 9.4 billion gallons and $12.6 billion in 2008 from 4.7 billion gallons and $6.1 billion in 2000. On a per capita basis, this represents growth to 29 gallons per year from 13. That’s a lot of water. Everywhere you go, people are swigging from plastic bottles of water: in the car, on the bus, walking down the street.

The cost of all those plastic bottles, however, transcends the $1.50 that the consumer paid. Only two out of ten water bottles consumed in the U.S. are recycled, with the rest going to the dump. That adds up to 38 billion bottles tossed into landfill every year. In addition, it takes 17 million barrels of oil to produce the water bottles consumed in the US every year. Finally, it takes thrice the clean water put in every bottle just to produce that bottle. Combine the garbage generation with the natural resource consumption, and drinking bottled water clearly has a cost to society.

Carrying your drinking water in a bottle is convenient, but not significantly more convenient than getting water at your destination. This is America, where virtually all tap water is safe to drink, and virtually all houses and offices have sinks with taps. It is challenging to imagine a circumstance where an urban or suburban American is more than 30 minutes from a source of clean drinking water.

So why the billions of bottles of water? Proper hydration has clear health benefits but I question that as the root cause. It feels more like people want to show – to themselves and to others – how busy they are. Realistically, nobody is so thirsty on their bus ride to work that they have to drink water from a bottle. We can all wait until we arrive at our office and fill our water glass then. But drinking from a bottle demonstrates to our busmates how busy we are, and how hip to hydration.

If nobody is so thirsty that they have to drink on the bus, much like nobody has such an important phone call that they can’t delay it while waiting in line at Starbucks, why are we doing both? By paying for unnecessary convenience, we can demonstrate to the world how much we NEED that convenience, how important we are. The parallel to Veblen is clear. But in a green world, conspicuous is out, convenience is in. In the modern world, you prove your worth not by owning a mansion in Newport, RI, but by being so busy that you need to drink, talk and eat on the run.

If I’m right about convenience consumption, what are the implications for the future? I predict that food will continue to be conveniencized. There is already Go-Gurt and Lunchables for kids, but I think that package food for adults on the go will continue to expand. Because lord knows, when people are hungry they have to eat…NOW! And if it’s gourmet, that’s all the better, since after all, we live in Veblenland.