Category Archives: Trends

CEO Council Issues Liberal Recommendations

The Wall Street Journal recently gathered a large group of CEOs together to discuss the top issues facing the country. The broad theme was “How to Rebuild Global Prosperity.” Under that theme were four subsections, and in each subsection a committee of CEOs produced five recommendations. What was fascinating to me was how each set of recommendations matched up with generally liberal positions.

The Energy and the Environment committee recommended:

  • Diversify U.S. energy
  • Promote energy efficiency
  • Cap-and-trade bill
  • Federal plan for electric grid
  • Diversity transportation systems

The Economy and Finance committee recommended:

  • Sustainable job creation
  • Bring back winning spirit in U.S.
  • Build greater certainty
  • Enact global trade pact
  • Tax reform

The Educated Work Force committee recommended:

  • Education is our top priority
  • Council for educated work force
  • Reward effective teaching
  • World-class teacher corps
  • Mobilize parents for change

The Health Care committee recommended:

  • Reform health-payment system
  • Measure health outcomes
  • Hold patients accountable
  • Reform medical malpractice
  • Promote integrated care

I’m not saying that these are a super-liberal set of recommendations. Certainly if Mother Jones or Howard Dean issued a set of recommendations on these topics, they would be different, although there would definitely be some overlap. But if you take the entire set of recommendations, I would say that they match up more closely with the Democratic platform than with the Republican platform. And if you take the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, I’m not sure that they would agree with any of the CEO recommendations.

What does this all mean? That when you get outside of Washington DC, the country isn’t as polarized as the media makes it seem. A collection of the most powerful CEOs in the country comes up with recommendations that are mainstream liberal. The majority of citizens are sitting solidly in the center, and if politicians and pundits would stop acting like jerks – if they would stop, listen and think – then maybe we could actually solve the big problems that our country faces.

Stop. Listen. Think.

The more I read about politics today, the more it seems like nobody really listens to what anybody else says. One person’s words are just a starting point for an opponent’s talking points, which may or may not have direct relation to those initial words. Politicians, pundits and bloggers are all guilty of this, including your humble correspondent.

This dynamic struck me when I was reading a New Yorker article about drone strikes in Pakistan. The article questioned whether the strikes might be counterproductive, because they kill so many civilians. The article quoted enough counterinsurgency experts who felt that way to make the concept seem reasonable, and if it’s reasonable that we are doing something unproductive, let’s explore and find out. But can you imagine the shitstorm that would result if a politician actually tried to investigate the matter? If Obama announced a commission to explore the efficacy of drone strikes, Rush Limbaugh and his ilk would go ballistic (note the clever missile-based double entendre).

That thought made me realize that it’s incredibly hard to solve problems when we are unable to even discuss the problems. The possible counterproductivity of drone strikes is a legitimate issue. The question of whether a government-run health care plan is a good idea, especially given the overwhelming cost of Medicare, is a legitimate issue. How best to reform our financial system is a legitimate issue. But so many attempts to discuss these issues are drowned in demagoguery that we never get anywhere. For example, John Boehner (R-Ohio, House minority leader, complete douche) called health care reform “the greatest threat to freedom he has ever seen.” There are plenty of reasons to criticize the health care reform bill, but that sort of hyperbole doesn’t serve any policy purpose. Since both sides of the aisle agree that some reform is needed, wouldn’t it be more productive to have a reasonable discussion of policy than to ignore the facts and say things that are clearly false?

So here is what I encourage us all to do: stop, listen and think.

  • Stop: Before responding, take the time to hear somebody’s full argument. Don’t start preparing your response before they are done. Or before they have even started.
  • Listen: Actually listen to the argument, so that you can understand what they are saying. Don’t assume that you can extrapolate from who they are to what they will say.
  • Think: Truly think about what was said. What are the assumptions? Does the logic flow? Where do you agree or disagree?

If more people were to stop, listen and think, we could have far more effective discussions in this country. Of course, there is really a fourth step: respond honestly. In my example above, John Boehner doesn’t really think that health care reform is the greatest threat to freedom ever. He knows it’s not. He is just saying that because he’s been trained to talk in hyperbolic sound bites. And because he’s kind of an ass. But if we all – bloggers, protestors, commentators, politicians – can begin responding honestly after we stop, listen and think, then maybe we can all be trained to talk in terms of policies and positions instead of attacks and sound bites.

Fund Healthcare Reform With Drug Company Ad Spending

One of the big concerns in the debate over health care reform, and rightly so, is how we’re going to pay for the costs of insuring millions of additional Americans. People are looking at various taxes and rate reductions and other mechanisms, with an emphasis on driving waste out of the system. As long as we’re talking about waste, I’d like to point out that drug companies spend tens of billions of dollars a year on marketing.

Pharmaceutical marketing expenditures generally fall into three categories: direct to consumer advertising, sales reps and samples. There are some other buckets, but these three are the biggies. From the drug company perspective, these expenditures are not wasteful. They drive market share gains for particular drugs; if they weren’t effective, the drug companies would not do them. But from a systemic standpoint they can be wasteful. Since doctors should make their prescription decisions based on data, all they need is education. Any efforts to “sell” them drugs are, theoretically, unnecessary.

Direct to consumer advertising, which is around $4 billion per year, is clearly wasteful to the system. The average person has no ability to judge between competing statins or anti-depressants or erectile dysfunction drugs. Asking your doctor for Lipitor because you saw a commercial with a pretty woman has nothing to do with data or drug efficacy. People do it all the time – that’s why we keep seeing those ads – but from a societal standpoint, that $4 billion is money being flushed away.

Sending sales reps into doctors’ offices to tell them about drugs (called “detailing” in the business) costs drug companies between $10 billion and $20 billion per year, depending on whose data you use. Part of detailing is educational – somebody has to give data to the doctors – but a large part of it is salesmanship, with lunches and perks being provided to the doctors. The fact that most drug reps are young, attractive, and nowhere near as knowledgeable about science and medicine as the doctors they are “educating” gives you some sense of what detailing is really about. As The Atlantic says, “Drug reps today are often young, well groomed, and strikingly good-looking. Many are women.” Or, in a NY Times article about how drug companies recruit college cheerleaders to be sales reps, Dr. Thomas Carli of the University of Michigan notes “There’s a saying that you’ll never meet an ugly drug rep.”

Samples cost drug companies between $6 and $16 billion, again depending on the data source. I don’t know if those figures are retail value or cost; if they are retail value, then the actual cost to the drug companies is clearly much lower, given the high margins on drugs. It would seem like sampling is unnecessary. If doctors are making their prescribing decisions based on published data, they probably shouldn’t be telling their patients “here, try this one. I got it from my rep, so it don’t cost nothin’.” On the other hand, samples give patients a period of free drugs before they have to start paying for their prescriptions, so I’m calling this a wash overall, rather than a waste. Plus, I have been the beneficiary of several courses of free drugs courtesy of samples and my awesome GP.

I know that trying to limit drug company marketing expenses is politically impossible. I also recognize that there could be 1st Amendment issues in trying to prevent companies from marketing. But with $15 to $25 billion per year being wasted, it sure would be nice if we could deploy some of that money on care instead of selling.

Piling on Malcolm Gladwell

It turns out that I am not the only person who thinks that Malcolm Gladwell is overrated and often wrong. Here are three more articles taking him to task:

  1. The Nation
  2. NY Times book review
  3. A blog about finance and statistics

I’ll let you all follow the links and read the articles, but I am feeling good about no longer being alone on the anti-Gladwell plank.

Thoughtbasket Nominated For Weblog Awards

In fact, we were nominated for:

If you want to support our nomination, click on any of the links above, then click on the plus sign to add your voice.

Gay Marriage: Should Tactics Change?

If I am going to blog about anything as controversial as gay marriage, I should state at the outset that I fully support the right of gays to marry. Two people in love should be able to marry. Period. The claim that gay marriage will weaken traditional marriage is, in my opinion, ridiculous. Here in California, I have voted for gay marriage every time it has been on the ballot (which may only be one time…I can’t really remember) and will continue to do so.

Yet while I completely share the goals of the gay marriage movement, I am going to recommend a change in tactics: stop pushing on marriage, at least for a while, and focus on strengthening civil unions. I say this in the wake of Maine – flinty, individualist Maine, state motto: “I lead” – voting against gay marriage. As we have seen in state vote after state vote (including super liberal California), the populace of this country is simply not ready to support gay marriage. Gay marriage laws have been put to the vote in 31 states and have lost every time. As the graph below shows, this is changing, and over time will continue to change, but for now, gay marriage is a losing vote.

Gay marriage attitudes over time

Gay marriage attitudes over time

While some might argue for continuing to push ballot initiatives until they win, I posit that strategy is counter-productive, because it riles up the opposition. As the NY Times reported, Maine’s vote attracted all kinds of outside money and support, including from the National Organization for Marriage and the Catholic Church. Civil unions, on the other hand, do not attract that kind of organized opposition. Marriage itself is the bright line that conservatives clearly intend to hold. The more we push gay marriage initiatives, the longer it will be until they pass, because we will continue to inspire the opposition.

Civil unions are clearly not as good as marriages. They don’t address federal laws like taxation and social security. But they do, or can, address many important issues: health care decisions, wills, community property, adoption, etc. And they can be made stronger because, as noted above, they attract less conservative opposition. So my argument is to spend the next few years focused on passing and strengthening civil unions, state by state, and wait for the citizenry of the country to catch up. As the graph below shows, they ARE catching up. As older people die and kids (who are used to seeing things like Eric come out of the closet on Gossip Girl) become eligible to vote, the tide will turn and gay marriage initiatives will be able to pass.

Attitudes toward gay marriage by age

Attitudes toward gay marriage by age

I recognize that this is all easy for me to say as a straight man. I don’t have to settle for the inferior civil union, nor do I have to live every day feeling like my society is not treating me fairly. While I can imagine that feeling, I can never completely understand it, since I can’t live it. I readily concede that saying that we should delay fairness is awful. So when gays say that they have to fight for their civil rights now, I get it, and I don’t mean this post to argue against it. This post is purely about tactics, and about what I think is the quickest way to achieve the gay marriage goal.

Greedy Doctors Are The Same As Wall Street Bankers

Given the current legislative efforts to reform health care, it’s not surprising that there are plenty of articles being written on the subject. But I was surprised that in just one day last weekend I managed to read three articles that blamed doctors for a decent chunk of our out of control health care costs. More interesting, not one of these articles was talking about defensive medicine or a focus on high tech care; no, they were all basically saying that too many doctors are greedy for money.

First there was this article in the NY Times, which discussed how the AMA has since 1929 (yes, 80 years ago) fought against systems (such as cooperatives) that would potentially limit doctor incomes by creating a salary structure rather than a fee for service structure. Although some cooperatives were formed, it was over the objections of the AMA. Not coincidentally, the two medical groups that are continually held up as paragons of cost-effective and world-class care, the Mayo Clinic and the Cleveland Clinic, are both cooperatives. At a recent conference on cost-effective care, most doctors and hospital executives agreed that the fee for service system is “archaic and fundamentally at odds” with good practice.

Next was this article by Dr. Atul Gawande in The New Yorker, in which he investigates why health care in McAllen, Texas is so much higher than the national average. In fact, he notes, McAllen’s health expenses are twice as high as El Paso, Texas, which has the exact same demographics. Gawande explores a number of reasons – service quality, technology, legal environment – but ultimately concludes that it comes down to massive overuse of medical care. Doctors in McAllen do far more tests and scans and procedures than average.

But Gawande goes even further. He blames this overuse not on a surfeit of caution, or desire to better treat patients, but on doctor greed. Doctors make more money when they do more procedures, and if they have ownership stake or revenue sharing agreements with imaging centers or labs or hospitals (and many of them do), then they have financial incentive to send patients to those facilities. Interviewing doctors in McAllen, Gawande uncovers a culture of greed, where doctors are in it for the money. Or, as a McAllen cardiac surgeon says, “Medicine has become a pig trough here.”

I sent Gawande’s article to a friend of mine, who is a doctor in a family practice, but who also has a Master’s in Public Health and did a fellowship in preventative medicine. My friend agreed with Gawande’s conclusions, noting that “nobody wants to give up that $500k+ salary, and the AMA is a huge lobby.”

Finally, The New Republic had a piece that sort of summed it all up, noting:

“Given how much of the game of reining in costs hinges on doctors–whether they see themselves as profit-maximizing small businessmen (or, for that matter, large businessmen), or as fundamentally involved in healing patients and receiving fair compensation for that service–I think we have to think about the kinds of people who go into the profession.”

And this is where I get to have my say. Because if someone is going into medicine because they want to make a million dollars, I say they should go to Wall Street instead. As this chart shows, it isn’t exactly like doctors are hurting for money. Practicing medicine isn’t a license to print money, and when a doctor orders an extra $1,000 procedure, while he gets to keep that $1,000, we all have to pay for it through higher insurance premiums. At which point he is no better than the greedy mortgage-backed security trader whose huge bonus ended up being subsidized by taxpayers.

This just in: right before posting, I read this article in the Wall Street Journal about how the AMA and the American College of Surgeons both came out against the idea of a commission setting Medicare payments to doctors. These groups continually lobby against reductions in Medicare payments.

Added bonus links:

  • Slate article describing how a Supreme Court anti-trust decision gave rise to doctor-owned hospitals and other greedy doctor abominations.
  • Denver Post article about a woman who died when a doctor-owned specialty hospital that didn’t have the resources necessary to handle her post-surgery complications.
  • Book review by Harvard Medical School professor Arnold Relman, who attacks the “medical-industrial complex” and the whole concept of profit-driven medicine: “in no other country is medical care marketed and advertised so aggressively, as if it were just another commodity in trade.”
  • New York Times article describing how the greediest hospital in Gawande’s article is one of the largest contributors to Democrats this year as it lobbies “to soften measures that could choke its rapid growth.” This lobbying has been successful, as language limiting physician ownership of hospitals has been stripped out of bills. According to Democrat Pete Stark, the physicians “just thought they could buy their way out of it, and it’s a sad commentary on the Congress.”

iPhone Bad For the Psyche?

I recently saw a magazine ad for the iPhone. This ad was promoting the app store, and was specifically pushing small business apps. “Helping you run your small business, one app at a time” was the headline of the ad. This post isn’t about the iPhone per se, although my friends know how I mock their Apple toys, and how I compare the iPhone to the Range Rover: overpriced, unreliable, and purchased primarily for brand status. Hmmm, maybe I should compare it to a Gucci purse instead….

Anyway, the point is not the iPhone; the point is some of these ridiculous apps. I call them ridiculous because they do things that nobody needs to do while mobile. Let me list a few here:

  • Nomia: Get help picking a business name, finding available domain names and running trademark searches.
  • Analytics: See how your website is doing with reports showing visitors, page views, etc.
  • Credit Card Terminal: Accept customer credit card payments right on your phone.

Here’s the thing: I do run a small business, and I have never had the urge to do any of those things while mobile. When I’m analyzing my website or processing orders, I’m doing it at my computer, so that I can make adjustments or run things through my accounting software. I can certainly imagine circumstances where one might want to do such things while on the run, but those circumstances are rare.

Some might say: why be tethered to your computer? But I retort: why be connected all the time? Do you really want to check your website performance while at the beach? I relish the chance to disconnect. As more and more Americans are complaining about lack of time to think, or play, or spend with their kids, do we really need to be online more? Instead of apps that let you look at your website stats while on the bus, maybe Apple should promote apps that remind you to read to your children.

Food and Politics

I was listening to Micahel Pollan on the radio last night (yes, on NPR; I was drinking chardonnay and eating sushi too) do his usual spiel on food, although this time it involved him promoting his new film “Food, Inc.” And although I know his viewpoint already — the American diet is unhealthy and politicians don’t care because they accept money from food corporations — this time I got  angry.

Maybe it was because this time Pollan told a story I hadn’t heard before: about how in 1977 Senator George McGovern led a committee that called for Americans to eat less red meat, until the meat industry threw a hissy fit and forced the committee to water its position down to “eat less saturated fat.” I just hate the fact that a single industry gets to throw money at politicians and thereby screw the American public.

Or possibly it’s because Pollan was speaking in the middle of the debate over health care reform. Politicians are feuding over the cost of health care and insurance, but they continue to throw subsidy money at the corn farmers and beef ranchers whose products are what make our diet so unhealthy. Hell, even the Wall Street Journal ran a column yesterday in which a doctor said that preventing obesity would save enough money to cover everything and everyone else.

So politicians, I ask you, again, please try to do what is right for the American people, and stop doing what some lobbyist pays you $2,000 to do.

Obama: Greed is “Shameful”

This is the second in a series of posts about the need for Americans to step up and be more responsible. We all knew this need was coming – it has been a theme running through many of my posts – but when President Obama called it out during his inaugural address, I decided to address it more directly. My first entry in this series was about NIMBY attitudes preventing environmental projects from moving forward. Today’s entry is about greed, particularly among corporate executives and Wall Street bankers.

When Obama said during his inauguration that “what is required of us now is a new era of responsibility — a recognition on the part of every American that we have duties to ourselves, our nation and the world,” my guess is that he meant businesspeople too. And yet just three days after the inauguration, the Wall Street Journal ran an article about companies using dicey calculations to boost the value of pension payments they are making to senior executives. I won’t get into the mathematical details, but the basic story is that instead of using IRS rates to discount the value of future pension payments, companies are using their own rates, to generate a higher payment.

For example, one of the executives profiled, John Hammergren of McKesson, is due to receive $84.6 million, rather than the $66.4 million he would be paid using the IRS rate. This man made $38 million in 2008, $25 million in 2007 and over $10 million per year for the last several years. And on top of all this money he gets paid, he is due a pension payment of $66 million. But that isn’t enough…he seems to need even more money, so he monkeys with the numbers to boost that pension by another $20 million.

Merrill Lynch is a steady source of greed. First you have John Thain (am I the only one who thinks he’s a dead ringer for Mitt Romney?)

romn

spending $1 million to redecorate his office. His excuse: the redecoration was done during better times. Dude, if you’re spending $1 million of shareholder money on office decorations, you are being greedy, no matter how well your company is doing. Then there is Thomas Montag, who Thain recruited to Merrill from Goldman Sachs with a guaranteed pay package of $39 million for 2008. Mr. Montag’s debt unit lost $16 billion in Q4 of 2008. Because of those losses, taxpayers have had to invest over $20 billion in Bank of America to support its acquisition of Merrill, and agree to share losses on $118 billion in assets. But has Montag (who, let’s not forget, after 20 years at Goldman is already rich) offered to take less of his bonus? No way. Why? Because he is greedy.

Of course, the ultimate symbol of greed was the recent news that Wall Street bankers paid themselves $18 billion in bonuses while taxpayers bailed out all their companies. It was this act of greed that President Obama called “shameful.” And he was right. For bankers to insist on getting their multi-million dollar performance bonuses, when their companies clearly had not performed, and were taking taxpayer money to survive, is the apex of greed. Companies claimed that they had to pay bonuses to retain employees. Where were those employees going to go? Bear Stearns? Lehman? I don’t think so.

Look, I understand people wanting to make money. I understand the desire to be rich. But rich people grubbing for the last dollar…I have to ask: have you no sense of decency? Responsibility and duty – to the nation, to our neighbors – means sometimes leaving a little money on the table. If we are to “begin again the work of remaking America,” as President Obama encourages us to do, reducing greed is a good place to start. How can we expect to solve problems like Social Security, health care, or global warming if everyone is grabbing as much money as they can? Whether the sacrifice is flying commercial instead of private, or buying a 30″ flat screen instead of 50″, if we are going to build America back up we must all change our attitude from “I want it all now” to “I’d like most of it, but I’m willing to share.” Let’s show a little restraint and try to come together to solve some really difficult challenges.