Category Archives: Trends

Public Pensions Bankrupting San Francisco

The SF Weekly has published two long articles in the past year about how poorly run San Francisco is and how our elected officials have essentially mortgaged the city in order to provide generous pensions to public employees. If you are a San Francisco resident, these articles are essential reading. And even if you live elsewhere, you should still read them, or at least the one about the public pensions, because the financial problems we have here are sadly common in cities and states across the country.

Before I get to summarizing the articles, let me first state how unbelievably, pathetically lame it is that the San Francisco Chronicle, a big newspaper with lots of resources, didn’t produce either of these articles, getting scooped instead by a free weekly. Of course, the Chronicle is in such thrall to SF’s power structure that the only truth we should expect it to speak is that Mayor Newsom’s wife is pretty.

The first article, published last December, focuses on why nothing works in San Francisco. As the article notes, SF has a massive budget deficit, a bus system that can’t run on time and an ever-burgeoning homeless problem. “I have never heard anyone, even among liberals, say, ‘If only [our city] could be run like San Francisco,'” says urbanologist Joel Kotkin.”

The problem, according to SF Weekly: no accountability. Nobody in SF government ever loses their job, no matter how badly they perform. Committees are formed, ballot initiatives are offered, bonds are issued, but nothing ever gets done, and the same folks are kept in their administrative posts year after year. San Francisco’s deep liberalism comes into play here; any initiative that supports education, or the homeless, or other traditional liberal causes, becomes nearly sacrosanct. Criticism, or even investigation into effectiveness, is shrilly attacked. The city’s liberalism also gives unions tremendous power here, so any city department with union employees will likely have high wages and accountability issues.

Speaking of SF’s strong unions, SF Weekly’s second article, from just two weeks ago, is on exactly that topic. It discusses the massive growth of San Francisco pension and benefits obligations to its public employees. Retirement costs for city employees grew 66,733 percent over the last decade. Benefits this year (not salaries, just benefits) for current and retired city workers are budgeted for $993 million. That is in a city with only 815,000 citizens. This spending is projected to keep on growing, and the city has a $4 billion unfunded healthcare liability.

Why are these costs so high? As discussed above, general incompetence plays a role; you can’t expect mediocre managers to hold down costs. The city’s liberalism also factors in; voters continually approve ballot measures that improve benefits for city workers. A recent ballot proposition that would push some health care costs back onto city workers was soundly defeated. But a big chunk of the problem is structural, and here is where other cities are facing similar problems. Policies are set by politicians, politicians respond to money, and unions are very good at throwing their money around. Moreover, those policies are implemented by bureaucrats, who are also city employees, and who thus qualify for these same generous benefits.

Cities and states around the country are grappling with this problem, and the bottom line is that public employees are going to have to take a hit. They can’t keep earning as much as or more than private sector employees, have infinitely better benefits than private sector employees, and expect the gravy train to continue. As the Wall Street Journal noted recently, in Oakland the cost of just the police and fire departments make up 75% of the city budget.

Regular readers of Thoughtbasket are likely shocked to read a post that stands against unions, and that has me referencing the Journal in an approving way. Look, I support unions. My father and both my grandfathers were members of the IBEW. Union wages put a roof over my head as a kid, and union benefits paid for my medical expenses. But this is a time of austerity, and everybody has to tighten their belt. If public sector employees get to retire at 50 with 90% of their salary and gold-plated health benefits, then the rest of us are going to be working until we’re 90. Look at the chart below. San Francisco is paying 4 retired police officers a combined $1 million per year. Until they die. I’m sorry, but that is simply unsustainable.

How Wall Street Captured Main Street

If you have the time, read James Kwak‘s interview in The Straddler. He has some interesting things to say about how our culture is oddly enamored of the idea of the swashbuckling wall streeter, and yet intimidated by economics and finance, and how that has influenced policy decisions. He’s a smart cat.  Here is a small sample:

“And Wall Street’s argument that it has this mysterious power, that you have to trust it that it’s using it for good, and that if you take it away, the world will end, is obviously obnoxious—but it’s a hugely successful debating point.  Congressmen are afraid of it.  They’re afraid that they don’t understand what’s going on, and they’re hearing these lobbyists say that if you push too hard on the banking industry, the world will end.”

Northern Budgets vs. Southern Corruption

Slate recently ran an article by Anne Applebaum claiming that the division that now matters in Europe is no longer east vs. west, but instead north vs. south. According to Applebaum, communist east vs. capitalist west no longer matters. The important division is austere northern countries that manage their budgets and affairs vs. profligate southern countries that spend like drunken sailors, hoping others will pick up the tab.

As Applebaum puts it:

“The South contains all those countries whose political classes have not been able to balance their national budgets, whose bureaucrats have not been able to reduce their numbers, whose voters have not learned to approve of austerity….The North contains the budget hawks”

After reading the Slate article, I read Michael Lewis’ article in Vanity Fair about the Greek financial crisis. Lewis describes Greece as less of a country than a national pool of corruption in which the entire populace knowingly plunders the government treasury.

Pairing these two articles really made me think about this dichotomy between governance and chaos, between bureaucrats who do their jobs and those whose job is merely a path to a bribe. And it’s really just a small leap from governance vs. corruption to civic good vs. selfishness and then to democracy vs. despotism. But once I started expanding Applebaum’s dichotomy into a broader range of behaviors, I started to wonder whether her north vs. south division could be expanded beyond Europe. I think it can be.

After all, the northern hemisphere is generally a lot better managed than the southern: Canada vs. Venezuela, Estonia vs. Syria. Of course, Russia is really far north, but it acts south. And North Korea vs. South Korea reverses the pattern. But I think if you were to average across the hemispheres, Applebaum’s north vs. south dichotomy holds. Germany is to Greece as Greece is to Zimbabwe? Even within the US, the southern states tend to be far more profligate than the northern, as in this awesome blog entry, or this table showing which states spend more federal dollars than they pay in taxes.

Income Inequality; Rise of Wacky Politicians

Here are links to two long and thoughtful articles worth reading.

The first is Timothy Noah’s ten-part (yes, 10!) piece in Slate on income inequality in America. He explores all the possible causes, in a non-ideological way, and then discusses why it all matters. Among the factors at play: taxes, overseas manufacturing, lobbyists and Wall Street. Check out this graph below to see how the share of the top 10% has grown over the last 40 years.

The second article is Matt Bai’s piece in the NY Times about Linda McMahon’s campaign for senator of  Connecticut. Bai explores how a staid, preppy state like Connecticut could possibly elect a cartoonish figure like McMahon, who based on her public statements seems utterly unqualified to be senator. He discusses the long-term trends, including white flight and the loss of industry, which lead to young adults leaving the state and public sector unions gaining power, which leads to a weakening of the traditional political system, which leads to wrestling impresarios running for senate. It’s a long article, but nuanced and thoughtful and well worth reading.

Why Football Trumps Soccer

In a recent post on why Americans don’t like soccer, I alluded to an overarching theory of sports which would provide a broader explanation. That theory is called the Hierarchy of Sports, and was originally promulgated by my college roommate Otis Hammer. The theory is really quite simple: the best athletes gravitate toward the sports that provide the most rewards. Different athletes may value different rewards, of course, but they will all play the sport that generates the most of their favored reward.

In high school, for example, where most athletes decide what sport to focus on, the reward is unlikely to be monetary. The potential for future money in a pro career may have some influence, but for the average 15 year old, the most powerful rewards are more immediate: the adulation of peers. In short, getting laid. What about the joy of playing, you ask, or the fun of teamwork? Yes, sure, those are great, but for most teens those ephemeral rewards pale beside the opportunity to have sex with one of your school’s hotties. If you are the top athlete in your high school, you will play the sport(s) with maximal potential for sex.

At most American high schools, this means football, basketball and baseball. Which, not coincidentally, are the big pro sports in this country. Here is a table from the US Census listing the most popular high school sports. Football, then basketball, then track, then baseball. Of course there are regional and economic variations. Lacrosse or tennis could be the big sports at some schools (Exeter) or swimming at others (Southern California). In some areas, football might trump everything else (Friday Night Lights and all). But generally speaking, if you are a good enough athlete to choose your sport, you’ll choose the one that will help you get some action.

Think I’m crazy? Don’t take my word for it. Listen to Zoltan Mesko, placekicker for the New England Patriots, who came to the US from Romania when he was ten. From a Wall Street Journal article: “A couple years later in high school, Mr. Mesko had to decide between playing soccer, which only parents watched, or football, which everyone watched, including cheerleaders. “No brainer,” Mr. Mesko says.”

The implication of this theory is that sports in the upper reaches of the hierarchy tend to attract better athletes. A great athlete will focus on high-reward sports rather than low-reward ones. Which again means, in much of America, the big three: football, basketball and baseball. Generally speaking, players in the big three are going to be better athletes than players in lower sports. If the guy on the high school tennis team had been a good enough athlete to join the basketball team, he would have, because it would have improved his social standing. Of course, international athletes have a totally different hierarchy, so comparing Roger Federer to LeBron James isn’t relevant.

But in America, the Hierarchy of Sports explains why pro athletes in the big three tend to be so good at other sports. For example, pro basketball player John Lucas was an All-American in tennis at University of Maryland, and even played a few pro matches. Or, going back a little further in time, pro football Hall of Famer James Brown was All-American in lacrosse at Syracuse.

Before you go all counterexample on me, of course this is a generalization. As noted above, how sports rank in the hierarchy can vary, and people can vary too. Maybe some great athletes loved tennis so much that they kept playing it even if playing basketball would have gotten them more action. And maybe the best looking girl in your high school dated the president of the chess club because she liked his brain. But this is a blog, so I get to generalize, and looking across the many data points of life I continue to claim that the hierarchy theory holds.

Thoughtbasket Goes Green

Your humble correspondent has recently started writing for Ecopreneurist, a publication focused on clean and green businesses. You can read my first post here.

Palestinians Try Nonviolence; Will They Stick With It?

Two articles recently, one in the Wall Street Journal and one in the NY Times (by Thoughtbasket plagiarist Nicholas Kristof), both discussed nascent efforts by Palestinian activists to use non-violence as a tactic against Israel, departing from the usual Hamas trope of violence against Israeli civilians and military targets.

As the WSJ article notes, violence clearly hasn’t worked for the Palestinians. “‘When we use violence, we help Israel win international support,’ said Aziz Dweik, a leading Hamas lawmaker in the West Bank.” Well, duh. The amazing thing is that Hamas is still using the same violent tactics that have clearly proven ineffective. It’s as if they’ve never bothered to examine their own history. Or, frankly, any other history. Because generally speaking, violent separatist movements don’t work very well. Why doesn’t Hamas go talk to the folks from the Tamil Tigers, or the Shining Path, or FARC, or the IRA? Those guys tried violence for decades, and it mostly got them killed or jailed. None of those movements achieved their aims.

Or, the Palestinians could look at political movements that did work, in India or Poland or South Africa or the American south. These movements were all built on non-violence. Moreover, they were all led by paragons of non-violence: Gandhi, Lech Walesa, Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King, respectively. Who do the Palestinians have? Yasser Arafat. You can see their problem. Had the Palestinians spent the past 15 years sitting peacefully in front of Israeli bulldozers instead of throwing rocks and shooting rockets, they would probably have their own state now. Instead, Hamas is the worst enemy the Palestinians have.

And yes, I know all these situations are more nuanced than I make them out to be. The ANC did use violence, and the IRA now has seats in Parliament. And the greatest independence movement of all, the American secession from England, was indeed violent. Of course, nothing is black and white. But the general trend is clear. For the past century, non-violent movements have been more successful than violent ones. If they Palestinians really want a state, rather than just wanting power, or wanting to kill Jews, they should follow Gandhi’s lead, not Arafat’s.

GOP vs. Democratic Messaging

E.J. Dionne recently wrote a piece about the open Supreme Court seat covering some of the same issues of Republican vs. Democratic messaging that I covered here and here. And a few weeks ago he wrote another article even more explicitly criticizing Democrats for continually losing the war of messages. Why are Democrats so terrible at this game? How is it possible for Frank Luntz to single-handedly kick Democratic ass time and again? I’d be willing to bet that the majority of folks at ad agencies are Democrats….so get them on the team.

You might think, and certainly we would all like to think, that policies and results are more important than messaging. Oh, how sweetly naive! If you lose the messaging battle, you never get to implement the policy and see the results. Messaging is how you get the support of the public, and since most people have very little time and/or attention for politics, your message has to be short and sweet.

Since Democrats can’t seem to get it together to develop appropriate messaging, I thought that I would take a crack at some of the key issues of the day. I don’t claim genius for any of these efforts – I’m a blogger, not a fighter – but maybe they will spark a little conversation and get some more talented folks to chip in.

Judges respecting individual rights
GOP

  • Judicial activism
  • Non-elected officials creating laws

Thoughtbasket

  • Understanding the meaning of the Constitution
  • Following in the Founding Fathers’ footsteps
  • Looking at the spirit of the law if the language is unclear

Estate taxes
GOP

  • Death taxes

Thoughtbasket

  • Monarchy prevention policy
  • Asset transfer payment

Regulation
GOP

  • Government control
  • Business killer
  • Job destroyer

Thoughtbasket

  • Public safety measure
  • Children’s health initiative

Aid to Poor
GOP

  • Socialism
  • Promoting dependency

Thoughtbasket

  • Safety net
  • Short-term help for the most vulnerable citizens

Economic Equality
GOP

  • Threat to liberty

Thoughtbasket

  • Promoting American capitalism

Questioning Security Policies
GOP

  • Unpatriotic

Thoughtbasket

  • Keeping America safe
  • Developing the best security system in the world

Healthcare Reform
GOP

  • Government takeover

Thoughtbasket

  • Preventing the deaths of innocent citizens

Finance Reform
GOP

  • Enabling taxpayer bailouts

Thoughtbasket

  • Stopping taxpayer bailouts

Raising Tax Rates
GOP

  • Destroying individual initiative

Thoughtbasket

  • Fiscal responsibility

Reaching Out to Non-allied States
GOP

  • Appeasement

Thoughtbasket

  • Realpolitik

Cap & Trade
GOP

  • Energy tax

Thoughtbasket

  • Grandchild Safety Act

Immigration Reform
GOP

  • Amnesty

Thoughtbasket

  • Continuing the American melting pot tradition

Nuclear Arms Treaties
GOP

  • Weakening America’s defense

Thoughtbasket

  • Making America safer by reducing nuclear proliferation

The Role of the Supreme Court

Following up on last week’s post regarding the new opening on the Supreme Court, Dahlia Lithwick at Slate wrote a piece more up to her normal standards, discussing how a court that “shows restraint” essentially just perpetuates the political power dynamic currently in force, enabling tyranny of the majority, which is exactly what the founding fathers wanted the judicial branch to be a bulwark against.

Lithwick’s article draws heavily on this awesome NY Times op-ed by Geoffrey Stone, a law professor at University of Chicago. His money quote is here:

Although the framers thought democracy to be the best system of government, they recognized that it was imperfect. One flaw that troubled them was the risk that prejudice or intolerance on the part of the majority might threaten the liberties of a minority. As James Madison observed, in a democratic society “the real power lies in the majority of the community, and the invasion of private rights is chiefly to be apprehended … from acts in which the government is the mere instrument of the major number of the constituents.” It was therefore essential, Madison concluded, for judges, whose life tenure insulates them from the demands of the majority, to serve as the guardians of our liberties and as “an impenetrable bulwark” against every encroachment upon our most cherished freedoms.

Lithwick also refers to this Huffington Post piece discussing how the Democrats have greatly improved their messaging on this matter, linking economic populism with the role of the Court, as in this quote by Vermont senator and Judiciary Committee chairman Pat Leahy:

“Congress has passed laws to protect Americans in these areas, but in many cases, the Supreme Court has ignored the intent of Congress in passing these measures, oftentimes turning these laws on their heads, and making them protections for big business rather than for ordinary citizens.”

Great Attack on Tea Party

Some dude writing for Salon has a very funny article on why he likes tax day, and it features this outstanding quote:

The Tea Partiers represent the aggrandizement of paranoia, rage and self-pity into a political agenda. It is a “movement,” created by for-profit demagogues whose sole mission is to build audience share at the expense of honest debate about our common crises of state.

I think that pretty much sums up the movement in two sentences. For another great article about Tea Party activists who are taking aid from the federal government even whilst they denounce all government aid, click here.