Category Archives: Business

Is Twitter Destroying Civilization?

Vanity Fair recently ran an article about “tweethearts,” who are women leveraging their popularity on Twitter (and their looks) into more popularity, and potentially business opportunities. Apparently the article is somewhat controversial, since it makes the women appear to be twits more than twilebrities, but given how the women posed for the article photo (see below), I’m not sure they can complain.

But I want to focus on how these women emphasis the speed and brevity of Twitter. Read these two quotes:

  • “Facebook is just way too slow,” says Stefanie Michaels, a twilebrity from Brentwood, California. “I can’t deal with that kind of deep engagement.”
  • “Sometimes,” says Julia Roy, a 26-year-old New York social strategist turned twilebrity, scrunching her face, “when you’re Twittering all the time, you even start to think in 140 characters.”

Um, hello? Facebook is too deep? You think in 140 characters? That sounds like the brain of a Golden Retriever, not a businessperson. So using Twitter makes you shallow and unable to think complex thoughts? If constant Tweeting turns people into vapid soundbites, making us a nation of Tila Tequilas instead of George Wills, then we are on the road to ruin. There are serious challenges facing this country, and they won’t be solved through discussions made up of 140 character Tweets. We need more depth, not less.

Tweethearts, courtesy of Vanity Fair

Financial Regulation Does Not Hinder Growth

David Wessel of the Wall Street Journal wrote a column today in which he proposes that the US has to choose between economic stability and economic growth. I am usually on board with Wessel, who does not follow the Journal’s usual slash and burn libertarianism, but in this case I think he’s wrong. His dichotomy is false.

The regulation that Wessel is discussing is financial regulation to curb the boom and bust cycle that we have just lived through. He asks whether “wise government rule to prevent market excesses” would also prevent the dynamic innovation that fuels economic growth. I answer emphatically NO.

As I noted yesterday, financial innovation is unrelated to business innovation. In yesterday’s post, I pointed out that the companies driving recent growth – the Googles of the world – have not depending on the innovations coming out of Wall Street. But today I will go even further. Between World War II and the S&L crisis, we had a long period of mostly financial stability, without the crises we’ve seen since then, and with a regulatory regime that had general consensus on Wall Street and in Washington. That long period of stability didn’t hinder economic growth; in fact, as the graph below shows it was one of the greatest growth periods in our nation.  Notice how much higher the growth is (the red lines) before the S&L crisis in the mid-1980’s.

Growth in GDP

Growth in GDP after WWII

I would argue that not only did financial stability and economic growth coexist during this period, but that the stability was actually helping the growth. After all, it’s a lot easier for companies to plan and budget if the financial markets are not booming and busting. And potential entrepreneurs are more likely to take the leap and start a new business if they aren’t worried about their retirement savings disappearing in a Wall Street flame-out.

So let’s not worry about financial regulation slowing down growth. Let’s focus on smart regulation that will spur growth.

Paul Volcker on Financial Regulation

Speaking of reasonable voices when it comes to financial regulation (see my post below), Paul Volcker is coming out strong for a much more rigorous set of regulations. Volcker ran the Federal Reserve before Alan Greenspan, and was considered a guru while Greenspan was still ladling Ayn Rand’s soup on Saturday nights.

Here is a link to an interview Volcker gave to the WSJ, and here is a link to a New Republic article by Simon Johnson about that interview.

The money quote from Volcker: “I have found very little evidence that vast amounts of innovation in financial markets in recent years have had a visible effect on the productivity of the economy.”

Again, that is a voice of reason. We all agree that capital markets are important to the economy, and that some financial innovation is a good thing. For example, developing ways for big companies to hedge their raw materials risks can help the economy. But developing ever more complicated derivatives and securities which are backed by securities which are backed by securities which are backed by assets?  How do those innovations help the economy?

This last point is the one that puts the lie to free market ideologues. They say that financial innovation is key to fueling the American economy. But financial innovation has nothing to do with the economy outside of Wall Street. Think about the great engines of American growth that these ideologues love to mention: Wal-Mart, Apple, Home Depot, Google or Tommy Hilfiger. They all grew large and hired thousands of people without building their business on credit default swaps or mortgage backed securities. None of them care about the hundredth of a penny reduction in spread that dark pool trading creates. Real innovation in the American economy is disassociated with Wall Street. The only thing that Wall Street innovation drives is Wall Street pay packages.

Reason & Financial Regulation

National Affairs recently ran an article on financial markets and regulation that was the most clear-headed, non-ideological commentary I have seen. The author, Nicole Gelinas, makes five main points:

  1. Capital markets are important because they allocate a key resource (money!) among various projects and sources
  2. A free market of buyers and sellers, or lenders and borrowers, is the most efficient form of capital market
  3. Some regulation is essential to the smooth working of a free market
  4. This includes regulation of leverage, speculation and complicated instruments
  5. Explicit or implicit government guarantees (eg. too big to fail) distort the free market

But read the article yourself. It’s not long, and it’s awesome.

Anger at Wall Street Grows

Just a few links to articles showing how fed up folks are getting with Wall Street.

  • The NY Times with a column from a former corporate lawyer calling for a windfall profits tax on Goldman Sachs
  • Salon telling Wall Street to “just shut up” and advocating limits to lobbying by financial firms
  • A new regulatory manifesto by a fed up investment banker
  • And just for fun, an attack on private equity’s quest for capital gains tax treatment

It’s starting to look like enough people are fed up that something might happen. Of course, the financial industry has already spent $350 million this year on lobbying, setting a record, and we know that politicians listen to money more than they listen to voters.

Short Links Getting Safer

I am always hesitant to click on those shortened links that Bit.ly and TinyURL produce, because who knows what sort of Russian porn-gambling site they might lead you to? As if I need the NSA crawling over me any more than they already are.

But today TechCrunch reports that Bit.ly at least is teaming up with three anti-spam services to help make their short links safer. TinyURL will likely have to pursue similar efforts or they will quickly lose market share. So link away, my Twittering friends.

CEO Council Issues Liberal Recommendations

The Wall Street Journal recently gathered a large group of CEOs together to discuss the top issues facing the country. The broad theme was “How to Rebuild Global Prosperity.” Under that theme were four subsections, and in each subsection a committee of CEOs produced five recommendations. What was fascinating to me was how each set of recommendations matched up with generally liberal positions.

The Energy and the Environment committee recommended:

  • Diversify U.S. energy
  • Promote energy efficiency
  • Cap-and-trade bill
  • Federal plan for electric grid
  • Diversity transportation systems

The Economy and Finance committee recommended:

  • Sustainable job creation
  • Bring back winning spirit in U.S.
  • Build greater certainty
  • Enact global trade pact
  • Tax reform

The Educated Work Force committee recommended:

  • Education is our top priority
  • Council for educated work force
  • Reward effective teaching
  • World-class teacher corps
  • Mobilize parents for change

The Health Care committee recommended:

  • Reform health-payment system
  • Measure health outcomes
  • Hold patients accountable
  • Reform medical malpractice
  • Promote integrated care

I’m not saying that these are a super-liberal set of recommendations. Certainly if Mother Jones or Howard Dean issued a set of recommendations on these topics, they would be different, although there would definitely be some overlap. But if you take the entire set of recommendations, I would say that they match up more closely with the Democratic platform than with the Republican platform. And if you take the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, I’m not sure that they would agree with any of the CEO recommendations.

What does this all mean? That when you get outside of Washington DC, the country isn’t as polarized as the media makes it seem. A collection of the most powerful CEOs in the country comes up with recommendations that are mainstream liberal. The majority of citizens are sitting solidly in the center, and if politicians and pundits would stop acting like jerks – if they would stop, listen and think – then maybe we could actually solve the big problems that our country faces.

Geithner Blew It On AIG

Eliot Spitzer took Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to task in Slate yesterday, accusing him of incompetence in handling the AIG bailout, particularly the full payment to swap counterparties like Goldman Sachs. Spitzer’s basic position is that since the government had all the money, it should have played hardball and forced everyone to take a haircut, which is standard practice in workout situations.

As Spitzer says, “The entity providing financing to a near-bankrupt institution must always seek contributions from everyone else at risk.” He further notes ““In a workout context, the entity with cash—here, the government—can set the terms, and the other parties can either accept those terms or walk over to bankruptcy court.” Spitzer also references the auto company bailouts, in which the government did play hardball and forced all parties to make concessions.

Regular Thoughtbasket readers will recall my supportive comments (read them here and here) of the government’s aggressive position during the auto bailouts, and so it shouldn’t surprise you to learn that I agree with Spitzer here. Geithner should have been far more forceful in making everybody feel some pain for doing business with AIG. As Spitzer says:

“Pressuring Goldman and the other counterparties to offer concessions would have forced them to absorb the consequences of making suspect deals with an insurance company that was essentially a Ponzi scheme. Forcing them to give concessions would have been one small step toward ending the moral hazard the Fed had allowed to flourish for years.”

This seems like a good opportunity to point out the risk of having career bureaucrats deal with business situations like this. Geithner was out of his league going head to head with Wall Street. Geithner has only worked in governmental positions, except for a couple of years at Kissinger Associates, which is essentially a government position. On the other hand, the guys who ran the auto negotiations, Steve Rattner and Ron Bloom, have significant real-world experience, as investment bankers and, in the case of Bloom, negotiating workouts of failing steel companies. This is why any government agency that deals with business needs to have at least some businesspeople in high-level positions.

Fund Healthcare Reform With Drug Company Ad Spending

One of the big concerns in the debate over health care reform, and rightly so, is how we’re going to pay for the costs of insuring millions of additional Americans. People are looking at various taxes and rate reductions and other mechanisms, with an emphasis on driving waste out of the system. As long as we’re talking about waste, I’d like to point out that drug companies spend tens of billions of dollars a year on marketing.

Pharmaceutical marketing expenditures generally fall into three categories: direct to consumer advertising, sales reps and samples. There are some other buckets, but these three are the biggies. From the drug company perspective, these expenditures are not wasteful. They drive market share gains for particular drugs; if they weren’t effective, the drug companies would not do them. But from a systemic standpoint they can be wasteful. Since doctors should make their prescription decisions based on data, all they need is education. Any efforts to “sell” them drugs are, theoretically, unnecessary.

Direct to consumer advertising, which is around $4 billion per year, is clearly wasteful to the system. The average person has no ability to judge between competing statins or anti-depressants or erectile dysfunction drugs. Asking your doctor for Lipitor because you saw a commercial with a pretty woman has nothing to do with data or drug efficacy. People do it all the time – that’s why we keep seeing those ads – but from a societal standpoint, that $4 billion is money being flushed away.

Sending sales reps into doctors’ offices to tell them about drugs (called “detailing” in the business) costs drug companies between $10 billion and $20 billion per year, depending on whose data you use. Part of detailing is educational – somebody has to give data to the doctors – but a large part of it is salesmanship, with lunches and perks being provided to the doctors. The fact that most drug reps are young, attractive, and nowhere near as knowledgeable about science and medicine as the doctors they are “educating” gives you some sense of what detailing is really about. As The Atlantic says, “Drug reps today are often young, well groomed, and strikingly good-looking. Many are women.” Or, in a NY Times article about how drug companies recruit college cheerleaders to be sales reps, Dr. Thomas Carli of the University of Michigan notes “There’s a saying that you’ll never meet an ugly drug rep.”

Samples cost drug companies between $6 and $16 billion, again depending on the data source. I don’t know if those figures are retail value or cost; if they are retail value, then the actual cost to the drug companies is clearly much lower, given the high margins on drugs. It would seem like sampling is unnecessary. If doctors are making their prescribing decisions based on published data, they probably shouldn’t be telling their patients “here, try this one. I got it from my rep, so it don’t cost nothin’.” On the other hand, samples give patients a period of free drugs before they have to start paying for their prescriptions, so I’m calling this a wash overall, rather than a waste. Plus, I have been the beneficiary of several courses of free drugs courtesy of samples and my awesome GP.

I know that trying to limit drug company marketing expenses is politically impossible. I also recognize that there could be 1st Amendment issues in trying to prevent companies from marketing. But with $15 to $25 billion per year being wasted, it sure would be nice if we could deploy some of that money on care instead of selling.

More on Ayn Rand

Regular readers can safely assume that I am not a fan of Ms. Rand, but even I was surprised to see the conservative National Review take her to task last week. When even William F. Buckley’s publication calls her both “a nut” and “morally indefensible,” then maybe all those Rand-loving Republicans should revisit their thinking. After all, they probably haven’t read Rand’s books since they were college sophomores.

For a deeply intellectual approach to Rand, check out this blog entry, which compares her philosophy to that of the Stoics and Epicureans.

For a completely non-intellectual approach to Rand, here is another link to the funny GQ article I referenced in my prior post.