Tag Archives: economics

Judge Posner Embraces Keynes

Judge Richard Posner, at the University of Chicago, is a big wheel intellectual who virtually invented the economics and law analysis that currently dominates US jurisprudence, and who is as responsible as anyone outside of Milton Friedman for the Chicago School of economics and its embrace of free markets. So when Judge Posner announces that the Chicago School is wrong, that unfettered free markets don’t work, and that Keynes was right all along, that is a big freaking deal. Well here is an article by Judge Posner titled How I Became A Keynesian. Here is a link to a new book by Judge Posner about how free-market capitalism failed. Here are a bunch of interviews with Chicago economists who are all defensive about how their theories failed. It’s not that Judge Posner is the final arbiter of anything (in fact, my prior post on him was a strong disagreement with something he said), but when a main force behind a movement leaves that movement behind, we should at least pay attention.

Shareholder Governance and Technology

In many of the discussions about executive compensation and Wall Street bonuses, it has been noted that shareholders are, theoretically, supposed to exercise some control, at least via election of directors. However, retail investors rarely take the time to read their proxy statements, let alone vote. This morning Eliot Spitzer (yes, that Eliot Spitzer) wrote an article in Slate listing several websites that are trying to use technology to both educate shareholders and to inspire them to get active and take control of the companies they own.

Business Schools Adding Creative Thinking

The NY Times recently wrote a story about how business schools are, in the wake of the financial meltdown, realizing that they need to teach future business leaders to think in creative, flexible and interdisciplinary ways. This is news? I’m no captain of industry, but to me it seems incredibly obvious that in business, like in the rest of life, the right way to make decisions is to pull together disparate data points to draw a conclusion, and then be willing to change that decision as new data comes in. Maybe the fact that this is news is what has been wrong with business schools all along.

Financial Regulation Does Not Hinder Growth

David Wessel of the Wall Street Journal wrote a column today in which he proposes that the US has to choose between economic stability and economic growth. I am usually on board with Wessel, who does not follow the Journal’s usual slash and burn libertarianism, but in this case I think he’s wrong. His dichotomy is false.

The regulation that Wessel is discussing is financial regulation to curb the boom and bust cycle that we have just lived through. He asks whether “wise government rule to prevent market excesses” would also prevent the dynamic innovation that fuels economic growth. I answer emphatically NO.

As I noted yesterday, financial innovation is unrelated to business innovation. In yesterday’s post, I pointed out that the companies driving recent growth – the Googles of the world – have not depending on the innovations coming out of Wall Street. But today I will go even further. Between World War II and the S&L crisis, we had a long period of mostly financial stability, without the crises we’ve seen since then, and with a regulatory regime that had general consensus on Wall Street and in Washington. That long period of stability didn’t hinder economic growth; in fact, as the graph below shows it was one of the greatest growth periods in our nation.  Notice how much higher the growth is (the red lines) before the S&L crisis in the mid-1980’s.

Growth in GDP

Growth in GDP after WWII

I would argue that not only did financial stability and economic growth coexist during this period, but that the stability was actually helping the growth. After all, it’s a lot easier for companies to plan and budget if the financial markets are not booming and busting. And potential entrepreneurs are more likely to take the leap and start a new business if they aren’t worried about their retirement savings disappearing in a Wall Street flame-out.

So let’s not worry about financial regulation slowing down growth. Let’s focus on smart regulation that will spur growth.

Reason & Financial Regulation

National Affairs recently ran an article on financial markets and regulation that was the most clear-headed, non-ideological commentary I have seen. The author, Nicole Gelinas, makes five main points:

  1. Capital markets are important because they allocate a key resource (money!) among various projects and sources
  2. A free market of buyers and sellers, or lenders and borrowers, is the most efficient form of capital market
  3. Some regulation is essential to the smooth working of a free market
  4. This includes regulation of leverage, speculation and complicated instruments
  5. Explicit or implicit government guarantees (eg. too big to fail) distort the free market

But read the article yourself. It’s not long, and it’s awesome.

Geithner Blew It On AIG

Eliot Spitzer took Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to task in Slate yesterday, accusing him of incompetence in handling the AIG bailout, particularly the full payment to swap counterparties like Goldman Sachs. Spitzer’s basic position is that since the government had all the money, it should have played hardball and forced everyone to take a haircut, which is standard practice in workout situations.

As Spitzer says, “The entity providing financing to a near-bankrupt institution must always seek contributions from everyone else at risk.” He further notes ““In a workout context, the entity with cash—here, the government—can set the terms, and the other parties can either accept those terms or walk over to bankruptcy court.” Spitzer also references the auto company bailouts, in which the government did play hardball and forced all parties to make concessions.

Regular Thoughtbasket readers will recall my supportive comments (read them here and here) of the government’s aggressive position during the auto bailouts, and so it shouldn’t surprise you to learn that I agree with Spitzer here. Geithner should have been far more forceful in making everybody feel some pain for doing business with AIG. As Spitzer says:

“Pressuring Goldman and the other counterparties to offer concessions would have forced them to absorb the consequences of making suspect deals with an insurance company that was essentially a Ponzi scheme. Forcing them to give concessions would have been one small step toward ending the moral hazard the Fed had allowed to flourish for years.”

This seems like a good opportunity to point out the risk of having career bureaucrats deal with business situations like this. Geithner was out of his league going head to head with Wall Street. Geithner has only worked in governmental positions, except for a couple of years at Kissinger Associates, which is essentially a government position. On the other hand, the guys who ran the auto negotiations, Steve Rattner and Ron Bloom, have significant real-world experience, as investment bankers and, in the case of Bloom, negotiating workouts of failing steel companies. This is why any government agency that deals with business needs to have at least some businesspeople in high-level positions.

Niebuhr vs. The Free Market

The deeper I get into Moral Man and Immoral Society, the more I realize that Reinhold Niebuhr was tremendously prescient. Or, perhaps, the world just hasn’t changed in the 70 years since he wrote the book.

For example:

“Thus, for instance, a laissez faire economic theory is maintained in an industrial era through the ignorant believe that the general welfare is best served by placing the least possible political restraints upon economic activity. The history of the past hundred years is a refutation of the theory….The men in power in modern industry would not, of course, capitulate simply because the social philosophy by which they justify their policies had been discredited. “

And yet, since the Reagan presidency, we have seen nothing but deregulation and an emphasis on laissez faire economics. And even after the meltdown of the past two years, the Right is clinging more than ever to its free market mantra, following the siren song of Ayn Rand, letting the Howard Roarks of the world build their luxury highrises while the city crumbles around them (that was buildings as metaphors and as concrete examples (and THAT was using a word which is a component of buildings also as a descriptive (Thoughtbasket has layers, baby))).

Just yesterday the NY Times reported on how Congress is gutting the Sarbanes-Oxley bill, removing the post-Enron regulations that were meant to prevent corporate chicanery, succumbing to corporate and banking lobbyists at the expense of small investors. Were Niebuhr alive he would be knowingly, and sadly, shaking his head.

America: Democracy or Dollarocracy?

A mere 15 years after buying it, I am finally getting around to reading Reinhold Niebuhr’s Moral Man and Immoral Society. Thoughtbasket readers will probably see numerous posts inspired by this book, likely spanning months, since that is how long it will take me to finish it based on my current reading pace.

The basic premise of the book is that while people, as individuals, are generally pretty moral, once they group together – as tribes, countries, companies, trade organizations – they often act in immoral ways. How Niebuhr bridges this dichotomy will require me reading beyond page 25, which is where I am now.

But in setting up the dichotomy Niebuhr discussed the forces that push man into society and ways that society enforces mores and rules. Writing in 1932, he says this:

“With the increased centralization of economic power in the period of modern industrialism, this development merely means that society as such does not control economic power as much as social well-being requires; and that the economic, rather than the political and military, power has become the significant coercive force of modern society.”

I don’t know whether to be relieved or disturbed that the economic elite have controlled our society for at least 75 years.

As the government throws trillions of dollars at Wall Street, with Goldman alumni seemingly running the Treasury department, and bankers using taxpayer dollars to pay themselves multimillion dollar bonuses (why isn’t that bonii?), it really seems like Simon Johnson is right and the financiers have taken over government via a quiet coup. But according to Niebuhr they took over government long ago, and while they have certainly managed to pillage the common man in the intervening years, the reality is that standards of living have increased since the 1930’s, so perhaps economic coercion isn’t that bad. That’s the relieved side of my brain.

US Income Distribution

The disturbed side of my brain, on the other hand, focuses on the pillaging. Note that in the above graph, standards of living have improved dramatically at the top end, but not so much at the bottom end. Not surprisingly, those who hold economic power ensure that society is set up such that most of the proceeds of growth accrue to them. Or, as Niebuhr puts it, “the dominant class….always paying itself inordinate rewards for its labors.” I wonder when and how we went from being a democracy deriving its “just powers from the consent of the governed,” to a society in which economic entities are dominant.

Should we blame greedy businessmen and craven politicians? Of course. But we need to look in a mirror too. Gary Cross discussed at length in An All-Consuming Century the trade-offs that labor organizations consciously made to ensure steady employment at a stable wage. Many of these trade-offs transferred power from unionized masses to the corporate elite. And as I’ve noted before, we all need to be more active and informed voters; when our representatives are more beholden to corporations than to people, we need to vote them out.

Another Data Point on Health Care Reform

Apparently there is an ongoing debate in ophthalmological circles about using Lucentis or Avastin to treat macular degeneration. These are two closely related drugs, both made by Genentech from the same molecule. Avastin has been approved for treating various cancers, but ophthalmologists have evidently been using it off-label for a while to treat macular degeneration. This off-label use is one of the reasons Genentech produced Lucentis, which has been approved for macular degeneration.

Why is this relevant to health care reform? Because Lucentis costs thousands of dollars per dose while Avastin costs less than one hundred dollars. Even worse, as I was told by an ophthalmologist over the weekend, insurance policies keep even those doctors who are worried about costs from using Avastin. Doctors pay $50 for a dose of the drug, but only get reimbursed $7, so they are losing $43 per treatment. If they use Lucentis, they get full reimbursement. One might argue (in fact, I probably would) that the ophthalmologists are making so much charging for the treatment that they should eat the $40 loss, but I doubt many of the doctors will listen.

I know that there are many complexities here: you can’t expect insurance companies to fund the use of unapproved drugs, and you want a drug approval system that errs on the side of safety, and there hasn’t been a head-to-head trial to see if Avastin is fully equivalent to Lucentis. But surely there is a middle ground, where drugs are sufficiently vetted yet we are not incenting doctors to prescribe thousand dollar drugs instead of fifty dollar drugs.

Even Sadder History of Lobbyists

I recently posted about how corporate lobbyists stymied consumer protection reform in the 1960’s and 1970’s. Now here is a quote from Baron Arthur Salter’s book Recovery, from 1932:

“Government is failing above all because it has become enmeshed in the task of giving discretionary, particular preferential, privileges to competitive industry.”

Ugh. Will the system ever be as responsive to individuals as it is to corporate interests?