Tag Archives: economics

Sarah Palin Gets Schooled on Economics

Alan Blinder wrote a column in Monday’s Wall Street Journal defending the Federal Reserve’s new quantitative easing (QE) policy. This policy has come under attack from many directions, including foreign ministers (worried about declines in the dollar) and Republicans (worried about inflation). In the latter camp was Sarah Palin, who criticized the policy, and then got her facts wrong about inflation, and then misquoted the Journal to defend herself.

Blinder is an economics professor at Princeton, and he takes a professor’s approach to the issue, explaining that the current bout of QE is pretty much the same as what the Fed normally does (printing money to buy short term Treasury bills), except that this time the Fed is buying long term securities. Blinder also notes that inflation is currently below the Fed’s target rate of 1.5-2%, so we have a ways to go before inflation becomes a problem, and the Fed can unwind this policy well before inflation gets out of hand.

Now some economists tend liberal, and some tend conservative, and Blinder is on the liberal site of the line, although not nearly as liberal as Paul Krugman. Yes, he also defends Keynes in the same column, and points out that the Republican phrase “job killing spending” is ridiculous. But Blinder is also a highly respected economist and co-author of one of the standard introductory texts, which I used in college. So if I had to choose who to believe on the likely effects of a Federal Reserve policy, I would choose Alan Blinder over Sarah Palin every time.

Deficit Reduction: Suck it up, People!

The bipartisan deficit panel has come out with its first set of recommendations, and everyone is hopping mad. Lefties say the cuts in spending are unacceptable, and conservatives are adamant that tax revenues never go up again. Good! I have no opinion about the specific recommendations made by the panel chairmen, but I know that if both sides are pissed off then the panel must be doing something right.

Listen people…this deficit is serious business. It will bite us in the ass if we don’t fix it, and fixing it is going to require some pain on everyone’s part. We’ve been living for too long with this fantasy that government could increase spending while cutting taxes. Now the party is over, and the hung over cleanup has to begin. Headaches? Nausea? Yes, exactly.

So liberals, accept the fact that spending will be cut, and not just military spending. I hate it too, but Social Security has to be on the table. Increasing the retirement age by two years over the next 65 years? That’s really not so bad. Tying other benefits to inflation? Also not unreasonable. We need a safety net, of course, but we need to be smart about it.

And conservatives, you too are in for some pain. Face facts: spending cuts alone won’t balance the budget. We need to increase taxes. You like to claim that any tax increase will kill the economy, but the facts don’t bear that out. This chart shows that in Germany tax revenues are 40% of GDP, far more than America’s 28%. And yet Germany’s economy is doing fine, kicking our ass in exports, despite having to absorb East Germany. This chart shows that marginal tax rates for individuals are lower than ever. In fact, during America’s economic heyday, in the 50s and 60s, top marginal rates were in the 70%-90% range, far higher than today’s 35%, and yet there was still plenty of investment, of people working hard, of entrepreneurs starting businesses. All the arguments the right uses against raising taxes are belied by that glorious period of American business. Speaking of that great Happy Days era, the chart below shows that the share of taxes paid by the wealthiest citizens back then was significantly higher than it is now. Again, showing that higher taxes do not necessarily stifle economic growth.

There will be plenty of unpleasantness to go around; Democrats and Republicans will each get their share. Our legislators need to get off their high horses, stay away from the cameras and microphones and acknowledge that their pet causes are secondary to the national cause. But as either Mark Shields or David Brooks (I still can’t tell their voices apart on radio) said on the PBS NewsHour, our politicians won’t make this happen until the public forces them to. Our culture needs to accept the need for hard choices, and then push our politicians to make them.

German Economy Is Kicking Ass

Following up on my prior post about the European economic model, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that the German economy is expected to grow 3.5% this year, its best performance since reunification. Moreover, much of this growth is coming from internal demand, balancing the economy away from its already strong export base. In other words, the high wage, high tax rate German economy has already recovered from the global recession and is starting to kick our ass.

Public Pensions Bankrupting San Francisco

The SF Weekly has published two long articles in the past year about how poorly run San Francisco is and how our elected officials have essentially mortgaged the city in order to provide generous pensions to public employees. If you are a San Francisco resident, these articles are essential reading. And even if you live elsewhere, you should still read them, or at least the one about the public pensions, because the financial problems we have here are sadly common in cities and states across the country.

Before I get to summarizing the articles, let me first state how unbelievably, pathetically lame it is that the San Francisco Chronicle, a big newspaper with lots of resources, didn’t produce either of these articles, getting scooped instead by a free weekly. Of course, the Chronicle is in such thrall to SF’s power structure that the only truth we should expect it to speak is that Mayor Newsom’s wife is pretty.

The first article, published last December, focuses on why nothing works in San Francisco. As the article notes, SF has a massive budget deficit, a bus system that can’t run on time and an ever-burgeoning homeless problem. “I have never heard anyone, even among liberals, say, ‘If only [our city] could be run like San Francisco,'” says urbanologist Joel Kotkin.”

The problem, according to SF Weekly: no accountability. Nobody in SF government ever loses their job, no matter how badly they perform. Committees are formed, ballot initiatives are offered, bonds are issued, but nothing ever gets done, and the same folks are kept in their administrative posts year after year. San Francisco’s deep liberalism comes into play here; any initiative that supports education, or the homeless, or other traditional liberal causes, becomes nearly sacrosanct. Criticism, or even investigation into effectiveness, is shrilly attacked. The city’s liberalism also gives unions tremendous power here, so any city department with union employees will likely have high wages and accountability issues.

Speaking of SF’s strong unions, SF Weekly’s second article, from just two weeks ago, is on exactly that topic. It discusses the massive growth of San Francisco pension and benefits obligations to its public employees. Retirement costs for city employees grew 66,733 percent over the last decade. Benefits this year (not salaries, just benefits) for current and retired city workers are budgeted for $993 million. That is in a city with only 815,000 citizens. This spending is projected to keep on growing, and the city has a $4 billion unfunded healthcare liability.

Why are these costs so high? As discussed above, general incompetence plays a role; you can’t expect mediocre managers to hold down costs. The city’s liberalism also factors in; voters continually approve ballot measures that improve benefits for city workers. A recent ballot proposition that would push some health care costs back onto city workers was soundly defeated. But a big chunk of the problem is structural, and here is where other cities are facing similar problems. Policies are set by politicians, politicians respond to money, and unions are very good at throwing their money around. Moreover, those policies are implemented by bureaucrats, who are also city employees, and who thus qualify for these same generous benefits.

Cities and states around the country are grappling with this problem, and the bottom line is that public employees are going to have to take a hit. They can’t keep earning as much as or more than private sector employees, have infinitely better benefits than private sector employees, and expect the gravy train to continue. As the Wall Street Journal noted recently, in Oakland the cost of just the police and fire departments make up 75% of the city budget.

Regular readers of Thoughtbasket are likely shocked to read a post that stands against unions, and that has me referencing the Journal in an approving way. Look, I support unions. My father and both my grandfathers were members of the IBEW. Union wages put a roof over my head as a kid, and union benefits paid for my medical expenses. But this is a time of austerity, and everybody has to tighten their belt. If public sector employees get to retire at 50 with 90% of their salary and gold-plated health benefits, then the rest of us are going to be working until we’re 90. Look at the chart below. San Francisco is paying 4 retired police officers a combined $1 million per year. Until they die. I’m sorry, but that is simply unsustainable.

How Wall Street Captured Main Street

If you have the time, read James Kwak‘s interview in The Straddler. He has some interesting things to say about how our culture is oddly enamored of the idea of the swashbuckling wall streeter, and yet intimidated by economics and finance, and how that has influenced policy decisions. He’s a smart cat.  Here is a small sample:

“And Wall Street’s argument that it has this mysterious power, that you have to trust it that it’s using it for good, and that if you take it away, the world will end, is obviously obnoxious—but it’s a hugely successful debating point.  Congressmen are afraid of it.  They’re afraid that they don’t understand what’s going on, and they’re hearing these lobbyists say that if you push too hard on the banking industry, the world will end.”

Benefits of the European Economic Model

Salon recently interviewed Thomas Geoghegan, author of Were You Born on the Wrong Continent?: How the European Model Can Help You Get a Life, a book which, in addition to having a ridiculously long title, discusses the benefits of the European economic model (higher taxes, generous benefits), particularly in terms of improved quality of life. I haven’t read the book, but he made some interesting points in the interview.

He notes that while Germany (his main focus within Europe) has high wages and strong unions, it is also a leading exporter. With one-third the population of the US, Germany still manages to export more than we do. Thus the claim that America can only be competitive with low wages and weak unions is belied by Germany’s success.

He also takes on the GDP statistics that seem to indicate that America is much wealthier than Europe. He notes that GDP doesn’t measure things like leisure time, or a free college education, or liberal parental leave rules:

“One day we’ll get beyond that and see that the European standard of living is rising. You can pull out these GDP per capita statistics and say that people in Mississippi are vastly wealthier than people in Frankfurt and Hamburg. That can’t be true. Just spend two months in Hamburg and spend two months in Tupelo, Mississippi. There’s something wrong if the statistics are telling you that the people in Tupelo are three times wealthier than the people in Germany…..So much of the American economy is based on GDP that comes from waste, environmental pillage, urban sprawl, bad planning, people going farther and farther with no land use planning whatsoever and leading more miserable lives. That GDP is thrown on top of all the GDP that comes from gambling and fraud of one kind or another. It’s a more straightforward description of what Kenneth Rogoff and the Economist would call the financialization of the American economy.”

That quote makes me wonder: if you took out all the casino components of real estate and wall street speculation, what would the US GDP statistics look like then? I’m sure that someone has done this analysis, but I couldn’t find it online.

Geoghegan makes clear that he is an American and that he loves America and loves living here. He merely notes that when we discuss, as we are in the current election, those great American values of individualism and free markets and the heroic capitalist, we should remember that there are benefits to other systems. Germans work, on average, nine weeks less per year than we do (two months!), and yet they seem to have a pretty nice standard of living. I’m not saying I want to move to Frankfurt tomorrow, because I don’t. I too love living in America. But there is no reason we shouldn’t learn from other countries and from what they do well.

Cloud Computing: New, Cool & Totally Old-Fashioned

I went to a very interesting panel discussion last week on cloud computing, in particular on go-to-market and sales strategies for cloud and SaaS (two terms that I will use interchangeably in this post) companies. The panel taught me about how cloud company executives view their business, but mostly it reminded me that most businesses are pretty similar: they hinge on cost-effective ways to bring in paying customers. No matter how high-tech your product is, you need to reach potential customers and then turn them into actual customers.

Listed below are some of the key lessons from the panel, split into the few that are cloud specific, and the rest, which could generally apply just as easily to a ball bearing manufacturer.

Cloud points

  • The product has to work. Since lots of cloud businesses are spread via word of mouth, the application needs to work early. Compare this to selling big software packages to enterprises, where bugs and customization are expected
  • Customers that might use a cloud product probably want to try it online, rather than get a visit from a rep. This is because they are, by definition, tech savvy. But of course you should adjust this for geography and age
  • SaaS products tend to have lots of upsell opportunities. So just get customers in the door, even with a small initial usage. This is why freemium works so well in this space. Note: this is really hard for traditional enterprise sales guys to adjust to. They always want to work for the giant sale
  • As a consequence of the above: don’t charge by the seat. That sets up barriers to increased usage. Let everyone use it, but charge by feature
  • Silicon Valley is developing camps: HP v. Cisco v. Oracle. Be aware, because this means that sometimes your backend technology choices might influence who you can partner with

Points that apply to all businesses

  • Your distribution channel must match your customers. E.g. Big companies like P&G are unlikely to buy via self-service model
  • Find a keystone/reference customer, especially one who can lead to other target customers. E.g. Accountants led Quickbooks to small business customers
  • SMB is a bad term. A 15 person company is totally different than a $500M company
  • Look at who is using your product, then target more of them. E.g. If you see that 3 ski resorts are using your product, then plan a marketing campaign targeting ski resorts. This is generally true in business, but it’s easier with online products where you can see who the end user is
  • Understand your business model: Cost to get someone in the door. Cost to get them to become a customer. Conversion rate. Revenue per customer. Margin. Productivity per sales rep. Online businesses have more data, so it should be easier to do this. But still, this is basic business knowledge. Revenue per customer needs to be greater than cost per customer. Revenue per sales rep needs to exceed compensation per sales rep
  • Don’t throw your venture money at the market by hiring too many sales reps too early. Develop your sales force as your model develops. Reps will always try to game the system, and the better you understand your model, the less they can game it
  • A better product makes for an easier sale. Duh! This is true everywhere. But here is an interesting, tech only metric that was postulated: aim for an a-ha moment within 10 clicks

Hat tips to all the people involved:

  • Chad Lynch, who put together the panel as part of the Total Access educational program at the law firm Orrick
  • Greg Heibel, a partner at Orrick, who moderated the panel

The panelists:

 

Are Businessmen Evil?

Jane Mayer’s article in the New Yorker about David Koch and his brother Charles and their massive funding of right wing political causes is an absolute must read. Regardless of political leaning, I think everyone should be disturbed by the ability of two incredibly wealthy men to so powerfully affect the political discourse in our society, and to do so anonymously.

But the article also made me think about how the Kochs and other businessmen are so determined to lobby government to support “free enterprise,” or at least to quash regulations that might hurt their business. The article discusses how the Kochs are using the same strategy on global warming – fund enough junk science to convince people that there is no scientific consensus – which the tobacco companies used so effectively to stall regulation of nicotine.

The issue I’m contemplating is not one of maximizing profits, but a broader moral issue. What makes a CEO who knows his product is harmful fight so hard against regulation? Does he take his fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder profits that seriously? Is he so focused on his own compensation that he doesn’t care what health problems he causes? The Kochs are nutjob John Birchers, so I expect them to screw over the world, but what about all the other CEOs? What about those who are fighting against environmental regulations even though they know that the global warming science is solid? Or Wall Street CEOs fighting against regulations when they know that their companies caused the financial meltdown? Or coal mining CEOs fighting safety regulation after an explosion in their mine killed 29 workers?

Look, I’m not anti-business. To the contrary, I am solidly pro-business. I’ve worked at companies, I’ve started companies, I consult to companies. My whole life is built on business. I understand the profit motive. What I don’t understand is the willingness to screw over the public in order to make more money. These CEOs would never in a million years think it was OK to stab a man and steal his wallet, but they have no problem poisoning him with industrial waste in order to save money. When do these people have enough? Where is their sense of human decency?

Northern Budgets vs. Southern Corruption

Slate recently ran an article by Anne Applebaum claiming that the division that now matters in Europe is no longer east vs. west, but instead north vs. south. According to Applebaum, communist east vs. capitalist west no longer matters. The important division is austere northern countries that manage their budgets and affairs vs. profligate southern countries that spend like drunken sailors, hoping others will pick up the tab.

As Applebaum puts it:

“The South contains all those countries whose political classes have not been able to balance their national budgets, whose bureaucrats have not been able to reduce their numbers, whose voters have not learned to approve of austerity….The North contains the budget hawks”

After reading the Slate article, I read Michael Lewis’ article in Vanity Fair about the Greek financial crisis. Lewis describes Greece as less of a country than a national pool of corruption in which the entire populace knowingly plunders the government treasury.

Pairing these two articles really made me think about this dichotomy between governance and chaos, between bureaucrats who do their jobs and those whose job is merely a path to a bribe. And it’s really just a small leap from governance vs. corruption to civic good vs. selfishness and then to democracy vs. despotism. But once I started expanding Applebaum’s dichotomy into a broader range of behaviors, I started to wonder whether her north vs. south division could be expanded beyond Europe. I think it can be.

After all, the northern hemisphere is generally a lot better managed than the southern: Canada vs. Venezuela, Estonia vs. Syria. Of course, Russia is really far north, but it acts south. And North Korea vs. South Korea reverses the pattern. But I think if you were to average across the hemispheres, Applebaum’s north vs. south dichotomy holds. Germany is to Greece as Greece is to Zimbabwe? Even within the US, the southern states tend to be far more profligate than the northern, as in this awesome blog entry, or this table showing which states spend more federal dollars than they pay in taxes.

CEO Pay: Out of Control

I was reading an article the other day about executive pay in America. This article said that in 1980 the ratio of what the CEO made to what the average worker made was 44:1. By 2007, that ratio had risen to 344:1. In other words, CEO pay went up 7.8 times as much as average worker pay.

That got me to thinking: has the average American company gotten 7.8 times as complex since 1980? That seems unlikely. So I searched for data that would answer my question, and I couldn’t find any. Therefore my assumption that companies have not gotten 8 times more complicated will have to stand.

But even if that assumption is wrong – even if companies HAVE gotten 7.8 times more complicated – that doesn’t mean that the ratio of CEO pay should have gone up that much. The ratio compares CEO pay to average worker salary. And if companies are getting more complex, then lots of worker salaries should be going up. Maybe not folks on the factory floor, but the guys who run the factory. Basically, everyone at director level and above should have their salaries going up to reflect any increasing complexity. Thus CEO pay is going up even faster than any increase in corporate complexity.

So what is the explanation? You’ll have to read the article, which discusses the invidious system of compensation consultants and interlocking boards. But the bottom line comes down to greed. CEOs get as much as they can, without concern for the impact of their compensation on the company or the workers below them in the hierarchy.

As many pundits pointed out after the financial meltdown [see examples here, here and here], American companies used to have a public service obligation; they were expected to provide some value to society, not be purely profit-making vehicles. The authors of the article (who are both, I should note, professors at Harvard Business School, the American epicenter of corporate greed) call for a return to that earlier attitude, with societal obligations providing a normative check on unrestrained greed. Their money quote (sweet irony!) is here:

“Every corporation is embedded in a social matrix, and is accountable for multiple factors within that social setting: obligations to the society that provides it tax advantages or public goods, such as public schooling, publicly financed research, or basic infrastructure such as roads and airports. In a democratic society like the United States, the general public expects responsible and ethical practices and the exercise of self-restraint among business leaders in exchange for vesting an extraordinary amount of power that affects society’s well-being in private, corporate hands.”